As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in financial markets, I have seen my fair share of market highs and lows. The recent surge in Bitcoin to $58,487 has certainly caught my attention, but as Julio Moreno’s warning underscores, it’s essential not to let short-term price movements cloud our judgment.
In the early morning trade on Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC), the most significant digital currency by market value, reached an astounding $58,487. Yet, even with this surge in price, a well-known cryptocurrency expert has issued a word of caution, advising investors to exercise prudence as the market becomes increasingly active.
As per Julio Moreno, who is the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, the current valuation suggests that Bitcoin’s price continues to trend downward or bearishly.
According to Moreno, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a ‘bear market’ and has stopped following the trend of gold, as investors are moving towards safer investment options.
Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing a ‘bear market’ phase, and it appears to have become independent or ‘decoupled’ from Gold due to changes in investor behavior, as they shift towards more conservative investment options, or ‘risk-off mode.’ For further insights into the crypto market, check out our latest report at cryptoquant_com.
— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) September 11, 2024
According to a recent examination by CryptoQuant, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has been in a ‘bear market’ state since August 27, when Bitcoin’s price was around $62,000. It seems unlikely that a major surge will happen while this indicator remains in the bear phase.
In a similar fashion, the MVRV ratio has dipped below its average from the past 365 days since August 26th. When this ratio drops below the moving average, it could signal a potential continuation of price adjustments. This pattern was also observed in May and November of 2021, periods when Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 36% over two months, marking the start of the previous bear market.
It appears that bearish tendencies can be seen in long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) as they’ve been spending their Bitcoins at relatively lower profits compared to before, and this trend has been ongoing since late July. The decreasing Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) bands indicate this shift in behavior. This suggests that the current demand for Bitcoin is not as strong among LTHs due to their reduced spending at higher profit levels.
Bitcoin briefly hits $58,000
On early Thursday trading, Bitcoin (BTC) crossed the $58,000 mark, propelled by a rally in U.S. stocks and positive movements in the Asian stock markets.
Data on U.S. inflation rates for August has increased the likelihood of a potential interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve within the next few weeks. The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, grew at a quicker pace than anticipated, surpassing 0.3% mark.
As I pen these words, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 2.18% increase over the past 24 hours, reaching a value of $58,025. Yet, there’s a shift in the market dynamics as U.S.-based spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows yesterday, after two consecutive days of inflows. This change represents a loss of approximately $43 million.
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2024-09-12 17:04