Bitcoin’s $63k Descent: War, Wipeouts, and Warnings

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The detonations of war, not the growls of bears, had dragged Bitcoin to its nadir since the fateful day of February fifth.

A joint aerial incursion by American and Israeli forces upon Iran occurred at the break of dawn, which saw Bitcoin’s value spiral downward from $65,500 to $63,000 within the span of a single hour. Ethereum, ever the loyal companion, slid to around $1,850. Approximately $75 billion in total crypto market cap vanished before most traders even stirred from their beds, a feat rivaling the swiftness of a well-timed espresso shot.

Over 154,000 traders found themselves liquidated in the past day, their financial hopes reduced to a mere $522 million in losses, with the majority of this sum stemming from long positions alone. The most colossal of these losses was an $11.17 million BTC position on Aster, a figure that would make even the most stoic of investors wince.

According to CoinGlass data, the volume of BTC futures surged to $76.27 billion over the past day, while spot volume languished at a meager $7.62 billion. This was not a natural sell-off but a orchestrated closure of leveraged positions, a ballet of financial acrobatics that left many spectators bewildered.

Every Iran Strike Has Crashed Crypto. Then What?

Here’s where it gets interesting, though the “interesting” here is likely a euphemism for “chaotic.”

In June 2025, as Israel’s missiles danced upon Iran’s nuclear facilities, Bitcoin plummeted to approximately $103,000. Yet, by October, it had ascended to new heights, surpassing $125,000-a testament to the market’s fickle nature. In April 2024, when Iran fired missiles at Israel, BTC fell to $61,000. Months later, it broke previous highs again, as if the market were a particularly stubborn garden gnome.

War crashes have historically acted as springboards. But there’s a catch, a caveat, a tiny red flag fluttering in the wind.

Why “Just Buy the Dip” Could Backfire This Time

The market walking into this strike was already broken, a shattered mirror reflecting a myriad of fears and uncertainties.

Bitcoin, once soaring to the zenith of $126,000 in October 2025, now languishes at nearly half that figure, a stark reminder of the market’s volatility. The Fear and Greed Index, that barometer of investor sentiment, hovers at a dismal 14, a realm where extreme fear reigns supreme. More critically, CryptoQuant’s revelations paint a grim picture: US spot Bitcoin ETFs, once voracious buyers of 46,000 BTC, have now turned into net sellers, a reversal that sends shivers down the spine of even the most seasoned investors.

On Deribit, the $60,000 put option holds the crown of open interest, with 5,200 BTC at stake, while the $55,000 put follows closely with 4,657 BTC. The put volume, in the last 24 hours, has edged past call volume, a sign that the big players are betting on further tribulations. One might say they are placing their bets with the confidence of a man who has already lost his wallet.

The big players are betting on more pain, a sentiment that would make even the most optimistic trader clutch their pearls.

One Signal Worth Watching

Not everything points down. Exchange netflows, that subtle whisper amidst the chaos, indicate that approximately 522 BTC have departed platforms, a signal of accumulation that contrasts sharply with the panic of retail investors. Someone is buying what others are panic-selling, a scenario reminiscent of a circus where the clowns are the only ones with a clear head.

The key level now is $63,100, the descending channel’s support. A decisive breach below this threshold could unlock the path to $60,000, while the upper echelons of $73,000 to $74,000 remain a formidable barrier. The pattern suggests a rebound, yet the structure whispers caution. Whether the former or the latter prevails hinges on the whims of Iran’s next move-a dance of uncertainty where the choreography is written in the stars, or perhaps in the headlines.

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2026-02-28 12:52