Bitcoin’s Bear Market: A Tale of Woe and ETFs

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Bitcoin is currently experiencing early stages of a bear market, based on multiple on-chain and market indicators. This trend is expected to continue throughout 2026, with prices likely to move lower rather than reach new all-time highs. 🐻‍❄️

In a conversation with BeInCrypto, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, attributed the weakening demand as the main reason for this outlook. 🤔

On-Chain Data Confirms Bear Market

While many investors are still debating whether a broader crypto bear market lies ahead, Moreno said Bitcoin had already entered one as early as November 2025. 🗓️

“Basically every on-chain metric or market metric confirms that we are in a bear market in the early stages,” he said in a BeInCrypto podcast episode. 📉

According to him, this is only the beginning. He expects prices to continue trending downwards in the upcoming months. 🚶‍♂️

“The question is how long it lasts or how low prices go, but from where we are starting, I wouldn’t expect new all-time highs,” Moreno added. 🤯

Moreno’s bearish outlook is not driven solely by price action, but by underlying fundamentals that he believes signal continued weakness ahead. 🧠

Bitcoin Demand Engine Starts Breaking

Bitcoin has been experiencing a structural contraction in demand over the past several months. To track this, CryptoQuant has been following the flow of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 📊

Between 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin demand was supported by several strong, identifiable tailwinds. When US spot Bitcoin ETFs were first launched, they triggered sustained institutional inflows and a sharp acceleration in demand. 🚀

Regulatory support in the United States under President Donald Trump further reinforced risk appetite. 🤝

However, this demand is now being dismantled. 🧱

“ETFs have become net sellers of Bitcoin since at least early November,” Moreno said, adding, “They were aggressively buying, then there was a slowdown, and now they are not buying, they are selling.” 🚫💸

This lack of demand has also become evident in other ways. 🤷‍♀️

Forced Selling Risk Enters Focus

Last year, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a surge in companies adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset. 🏦

With Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) leading the way, firms such as MetaPlanet, Twenty One Capital, and MARA Holdings followed a similar accumulation playbook. 📈

$BTC institutional demand is now at its lowest level in 8 months.

DATs have stopped buying.
ETF inflows have gone down.

Without a strong demand, every Bitcoin upward move will just be a bull trap. 🐍

– Ted (@TedPillows) December 7, 2025

However, this rush to buy has faded. 🎯

“Other than MicroStrategy, basically all the Bitcoin treasury companies have stopped buying. If prices continue declining, there is a higher risk that we will see some companies forced to sell their holdings,” Moreno told BeInCrypto. ⚠️

It’s precisely this forced selling risk that may serve as a potential accelerator of downside volatility. 🚨

According to Moreno, Bitcoin could reach a bottom as low as $56,000. 💸

Despite the downside risks, Moreno stressed that Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook will ultimately depend on whether demand can recover. 🔄

“The moment demand stops contracting and starts to grow again, that’s when the market structure changes,” he said. 🌱

Until that shift becomes visible on-chain, the most productive approach to the market is one of caution. 🧭

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2026-01-08 01:48