Pray, allow me to introduce you to the esteemed on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which, like a genteel butler scrutinizing the scene, has announced that the ever-elusive bear market confirmation for Bitcoin has yet to make a dignified entrance this cycle. One might suspect it’s fashionably late, or simply playing hide and seek.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Playing It Cool While Short-Term Ones Are Sweating
In their latest weekly communique, Glassnode waxes lyrical about this curious creature known as the Unrealized Loss. Now, for the uninitiated, this isn’t your garden-variety financial grief. It’s an indicator measuring the cumulative heartaches of Bitcoin addresses—the sum total of “my coin is worth less than when I bought it” sob stories.
How, you ask, is this measured? Well, one must conjure the forwarding history of each shiny digital coin to discover the price at which it last changed hands. Should the current market price be lower than this magical number, the poor chap clutching that coin is presumed to be nursing a loss.
The sorcery continues by tallying up these losses across all coins fluttering about the network, resulting in a grand total of collective misery. But hold your monocles, because the usual “Unrealized Loss” has a new dapper cousin: the Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown. This chap adjusts for the market’s waltzes up and down, providing a loss metric relative to how far the price has dipped from its lofty heights.
As the market contracts (imagine a corset tightening), one would naturally expect these losses to balloon. To keep things fair and standardized across varying market falls, Glassnode introduces this newfangled metric, expressing losses in BTC terms versus the percentage drop from all-time bravado.
Feast your eyes on this chart detailing the short-term holders’ (STHs) plight—the fellow investors who’ve bought their Bitcoin within roughly the past 155 days. According to the scroll, these poor souls are currently standing, or rather sitting, on a pile of unrealized losses, given that Bitcoin’s asking price has dipped below most of their purchase prices. The metric has shot up like a champagne cork, reaching levels reminiscent of the opening acts of prior bear markets.🎢
Meanwhile, the long-term holders (LTHs)—those stalwarts who have clung to their Bitcoin longer than the usual 155-day courtesy period—are presently twirling their monocles without a hint of unrealized losses. Historically, these dignified investors have seen their losses swell during bear market confirmations like clockwork.
As the learned scribes note, sharp upticks in the long-term holders’ losses have served as a reliable encore signal that bear markets have indeed taken the stage, though often with a brief intermission following the peak.
Alas, so far this particular signal has been playing coy, not yet gracing Bitcoin’s current dance card. However, given that top buyers will soon graduate into the long-term club, it’s only a matter of time before their collective loss fiddles start tuning up.
Bitcoin’s Price: A Spot of Flatness at $85,000
Bitcoin has taken a brief respite from the recovery fandango, opting instead for a more demure sideways promenade near the $85,000 mark. One might say it’s catching its breath before the next act. Or perhaps it’s just indecisive, which—between you and me—is entirely human.🤷♂️
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2025-04-18 10:36