Bitcoin’s Bearish Ballet: Is Jackson Hole the Final Act? 🎭💰

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What ho, old sport! Here’s the lowdown:

  • The 180-day call-put skew on Deribit is more negative than a wet weekend in Blighty. 🌧️
  • BTC’s price has tripped over its own moving averages, suggesting a spot of bother. 🏃‍♂️💨

In this spiffing article


BTCBTC$115,244.11◢2.70%

Well, I’ll be jiggered! Key Bitcoin indicators are hinting at a bearish regime shift, just as the chaps are gearing up for Jerome Powell’s grand performance at Jackson Hole. 🦬🎤

First off, the 180-day call-put skew on Deribit-the largest crypto options exchange, don’t you know-is looking more glum than a butler on a Monday morning. As of this scribble, it’s sitting at a negative 0.42, the lowest since June 2023. Amberdata says so, and they’re not ones to fib. A negative skew? That’s traders betting on put options like they’re going out of fashion. 🕶️💼

“BTC longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift,” quoth Imran Lakha, the egghead behind Options Insights, on X. Quite the mouthful, what? 🧠📉

This negative malarkey follows two years of positive values, which were as bullish as a terrier with a bone. Now, the sentiment’s flipped faster than a pancake on Shrove Tuesday. 🥞✨

And here’s the kicker: BTC’s only dipped 8% from its record highs above $124,000, yet the long-term mood is as bearish as a bear with a headache. Lakha reckons the pullback’s sparked a dash for put options, with August/September puts around the $110,000 strike being snapped up like hot cakes. Meanwhile, calls are being sold off like last season’s hats. 🧢💨

All eyes are on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this Friday. If he delivers the expected rate cuts, crypto might take a sideways stroll or a bearish tumble-classic “sell the news” shenanigans. But if he surprises with deeper cuts, well, that could spark a bullish bonanza. 🌟📈

Stock traders in a tizzy

Over on Wall Street, the chaps are buying ‘disaster’ puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust like it’s going out of style. Jeff Jacobson of 22V Research Group tells Bloomberg they’re bracing for a sell-off in tech stocks. 🏢💥

Guppy’s moving averages: A spot of trouble

The Guppy multiple moving average (GMMA) indicator-dreamt up by Aussie trader Daryl Guppy-is also waving a red flag. BTC’s price has crossed below the Guppy bands, a sign the bulls are losing their grip. This often spells trouble, with downside momentum poised to strengthen. 🚩⚠️

Other indicators, like the MACD histogram, are also pointing south. So, old bean, buckle up-it’s going to be a bumpy ride! 🎢🚀

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2025-08-21 10:11