Bitcoin’s Bull Run on Thin Ice: Will the $98K Line Hold?

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Now, here’s a bit of a pickle, isn’t it? Ostium Labs, those clever chaps who seem to have a knack for peering into the future of the crypto world, are waving a cautionary finger at the Bitcoin bull run. They’re saying, quite firmly, that while the uptrend is still intact after that little hiccup in August, things could go south if the price drops below $98,000. Oh, the horror! 🤯

In their September 1 Market Outlook, these financial wizards put it rather bluntly: “Closing below $98k on this timeframe would turn weekly structure bearish.” But don’t reach for the smelling salts just yet, for they also add, “Above $98k weekly structure is still bullish and therefore we should anticipate the formation of a higher-low.” Phew, what a relief! 🙌

When the ink was drying on this report, Ostium noted that Bitcoin was floating around $108,017, a figure that seemed to suggest the August monthly candle had settled “firmly red” after a wild ride to about $124.5k and a close near previous resistance-turned-support around $108.2k. Quite the rollercoaster, wouldn’t you say? 🎢

Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch Now

On the monthly chart, Ostium Labs is keeping a keen eye out for any signs of a 2021-style cyclical top. They acknowledge a bit of momentum divergence on the RSI but reassure us that the Awesome Oscillator hasn’t given them any cause for alarm. “AO has continued to point towards building momentum throughout the uptrend… I do not think this is even remotely similar to the 2021 top formation,” they write, with a confidence that’s almost as reassuring as a warm cup of tea on a chilly evening. 🍵

The bear case, they warn, will strengthen if September “closes below the 2025 open at $93.3k and therefore below local trendline support.” On the other hand, for the bulls to keep their heads held high, they need September to find support “above the yearly open, but likely much higher around the July lows at $105k,” and ideally finish the month in the green, “above the August open at $115k.” If that happens, it would set the stage for a splendid expansion beyond the highs in October. 🚀

According to Ostium’s reading of the weekly structure, there’s been no sign of exhaustion in the upward movement, and the RSI has reset toward 50, suggesting the trend might continue. If the market can carve out a higher low early in September and regain momentum, a weekly close “back above $112k leads to a retest of the August open and potentially $117.5k into FOMC, with a retest of the highs before month-end.” That’s music to the ears of any self-respecting bull! 🐂

The daily timeframe presents the immediate challenge. Ostium describes the recent pullback as “orderly,” with supports turning into resistances as the price dips. The key level to watch, naturally, is the $112k mark, which served as support in early August and has since become a formidable resistance. “A breakout and close above the trendline and back above $112k would look like the bottom is in,” they predict. However, a failed attempt-“a wick above the trendline into $112k and reject”-could send the price tumbling toward the June open at $104.5k, with the 200-day moving average at $101.3k serving as a crucial demand zone. 📊

With a week ahead filled with macroeconomic events-ISM prints, JOLTS, the Fed’s Beige Book, jobless claims, ADP, ISM Services, and the big Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday-Ostium outlines tactical setups for both bulls and bears. For the long players, they recommend waiting for signs of exhaustion near support, such as a liquidation wick into the June-open/200-day cluster, followed by a bullish divergence. For the short sellers, a sharp early-week squeeze into $112k, without breaking the day’s low around $107k, would be the ideal setup to fade the pop back into weekly lows. 🎯

Ostium also takes a look at the broader positioning, noting the current state of affairs on platforms like Velo and CoinGlass, the three-month annualized basis, and the mix between Bitcoin and altcoin open interest. While they avoid making grand proclamations, their technical levels align with the most concentrated liquidation density, particularly around the $112k pivot and the $105k-$101k demand shelf. 🧩

DXY As Tailwind For The BTC Price

But wait, there’s more! Ostium’s report doesn’t stop at Bitcoin. They also delve into the dollar’s role in the BTC price narrative. With the DXY index hovering around 97.2, they see it as a tailwind for Bitcoin into the year-end. They expect the DXY to dip below 96 and push toward 94.6, possibly even 93, where a bottoming formation might emerge. While they don’t rule out a long-term bullish case for the DXY, they view the current leg as the final cyclical downswing before a multi-year recovery. A decisive monthly reclaim of 100, however, would put a damper on the near-term bearish outlook for the DXY. 💸

To sum it all up, Ostium’s September roadmap is all about clarity on key thresholds. For Bitcoin, a weekly loss of $98,000 would mark the first structural break of the cycle; a daily reclaim of $112,000 would signal that the local low is in; and a monthly hold above $105,000, with a close back over $115,000, would set the stage for new highs in October. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at a respectable $110,610, keeping the bulls in high spirits. 🎉

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2025-09-02 11:18