a keynote by President Trump sent implied volatility soaring above 90 before it plummeted, leaving spot BTC gasping for breath as it tumbled nearly 30 percent in just forty-eight hours. “That episode continues to shape market memory,” warns QCP, though they assign a low probability to a repeat performance—how reassuring!
Yet, caution is the order of the day. Perpetual futures open interest has retreated, and funding rates have slid back toward neutral levels—signs of a “defensive tilt,” as QCP puts it. Retail traders, usually the life of the party, are now dialing back their risk. Even the ever-optimistic James Wynn has trimmed his longs, echoing a rising demand for short-dated puts that QCP describes as “persistent.”
ETF flows, however, remain the counterbalance to this caution. US spot-Bitcoin products absorbed a staggering 7,869 BTC last Friday—the largest single-day haul since late April. For the week ending May 23, net inflows reached $2.75 billion, the second-strongest weekly print of the year. QCP argues these allocations “offer underlying support,” but they’re not nearly enough to stave off the short-term swings that headlines can provoke.
Rumors—now denied—that Trump Media is exploring a $3 billion crypto raise exemplify the hair-trigger backdrop. “Headline sensitivity is elevated,” QCP notes, as if we needed another reminder that the market is as stable as a house of cards in a windstorm. They predict Bitcoin will hold its current range until the Las Vegas speeches conclude, after which “front-end vols are expected to compress as risk premia fade.”
Higher Until Early June? 📈
Not everyone is convinced that this compression will arrive swiftly. The pseudonymous macro-cycle analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero), whose FOMC-timing model has proven eerily accurate, remains bullish. “This is not a ‘top in June’ call,” he insists, “but rather a declaration that we shall ascend from here.” How refreshing!
He argues that Bitcoin has a historical tendency to grind upward until about ten days before an FOMC meeting, which is set for June 18. “Price likely keeps going higher until the 8th–18th of June,” he proclaims, as if he’s just discovered the secret to eternal youth. He acknowledges that “alts always lag behind BTC,” but insists that now is the time to press the momentum trade—because who doesn’t love a good gamble?
For now, spot prices remain eerily calm, even as the options market prices in a tempest. Whether this storm will be a gentle breeze or a full-blown hurricane may hinge on a sound bite from a Las Vegas stage or a policy nuance from the Marriner Eccles Building three weeks hence. Until then, Bitcoin’s tranquility is precisely what makes seasoned traders twitchy—and why hedging desks are busier than a cat in a room full of rocking chairs.
As of the latest update, BTC is trading at a cool $110,661. 🤑
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2025-05-28 06:06