Bitcoin’s ‘Comeback’? More Like a Bear in Sheep’s Clothing!

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Oh, Bitcoin, you sneaky minx! You’ve bounced back 18% from your February sulk near $62,530, briefly flirting with $74,150 this week. The headlines are all like, “It’s a comeback!” But darling, on-chain data is side-eyeing this rally harder than I side-eye a sale rack at Zara.

BeInCrypto’s on-chain sleuths and Glassnode’s latest tea-spilling report are both whispering the same thing: this isn’t a rally, it’s a relief rally. Like when you finally unbutton your jeans after Thanksgiving dinner. Not exactly a new fashion trend.

The Profit Signal? More Like a Bear in a Cocktail Dress

The real gossip comes from Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss. It’s like the party guest who spills the truth after one too many cosmos. Since January, it’s been stuck in negative territory, meaning more value is being destroyed than created. Sound familiar? It’s basically the crypto version of 2018 and 2022 calling to say, “We’ve been here before, and it didn’t end in confetti.”

And get this-the price is bouncing, but the profits aren’t. It’s like showing up to a party in a fabulous outfit but forgetting to wear pants. Not a good look, Bitcoin.

Oh, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI)? It’s throwing shade. Between December 9 and March 4, Bitcoin pretended to be all “higher highs,” but the RSI was like, “Girl, please,” and registered a lower high. Momentum and price are having a divorce, and it’s messy.

Glassnode’s Supply Profitability State Signal is also raising an eyebrow. Only 57% of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit, which is basically the crypto equivalent of wearing last season’s trends. Historically, this has been the early stages of a bear market-think 2018 and 2022, but with worse haircuts.

Short-Term Holders? They’re Selling Faster Than a Sample Sale

Glassnode’s Realized Price by Age metric is spilling the tea: recent buyers (1 week to 1 month) bought in near $70,000. So, when Bitcoin hits $68,500 to $71,500, they’re like, “Peace out!” and sell. BeInCrypto’s HODL Wave analysis confirms it-supply is leaving hands faster than a bad date.

Derivatives market? Also not buying the hype. Open interest is at $24.29 billion, which is like showing up to a gala in last year’s gown. Glassnode’s perpetual directional premium data? Compressed. No speculative long exposure. It’s like the party’s over before it even started.

Key Price Levels? More Like a Drama-Filled Soap Opera

Immediate resistance? $74,770 to $75,700. But here’s the twist: $75,000 is where $2.3 billion in negative gamma is lurking. It’s like a dealer-driven short squeeze, but without the glamour. Once it hits, the mechanical bid disappears, and the price stalls faster than a reality TV star’s career.

Support? $68,640 to $70,090. If Bitcoin dips below $68,640, it’s like falling off the runway-next stop, $62,520. Fashion disaster.

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2026-03-06 09:27