Bitcoin’s Cycle? Oh, How Droll! 🙄

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A Most Curious Development:

  • It appears Bitcoin’s predictable cycles are, according to Mr. Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant, quite… *deceased*.
  • The analyst observes that a new breed of investor – those of substantial means and possessing a decided preference for strategy over impulse – now hold sway.
  • Forecasting future misfortunes (or, as some call them, “bear markets”) has become a task of considerable difficulty, as the old signs are, alas, no longer reliable.

Mr. Ki Young Ju, a gentleman of some repute in the world of CryptoQuant, has lately declared that Bitcoin’s established market cycle theory is, to put it mildly, rather past its prime. This pronouncement was made amidst a slight, though unsettling, correction in the price of Bitcoin, with these aforementioned institutional investors appearing to have taken the reins. A most alarming thought, wouldn’t you agree?

This alteration, he asserts, is of such magnitude that it renders previous methods of prediction – those based on the fickle sentiments of the retail investor and the comings and goings of the larger holders – utterly obsolete. One begins to wonder if the entire endeavour is not a touch…precarious.

Herein lies an explanation of why Bitcoin’s behaviour is undergoing a change, and what that change might portend for those engaged in the speculation of these digital assets.

The Demise of the Bitcoin Cycle

Historically, the Bitcoin cycle has rested upon two rather simple, yet effective, principles. Firstly, one should acquire Bitcoin when the substantial holders accumulate it. Secondly, one ought to dispose of it when the general public, in a fit of enthusiasm, rushes to do the same.

This dance of accumulation and distribution has, for some time, dictated the rise and fall of Bitcoin’s fortunes. The larger holders were deemed the more discerning, investing early, while the retail investors, ever prone to enthusiasm, often purchased at the zenith, only to sell in a panic during times of decline, further exacerbating the situation. A rather predictable, and, frankly, amusing spectacle.

However, Mr. Ju now confesses that this pattern no longer obtains. He points out that his recent, rather gloomy, prediction – delivered in March, if memory serves – was founded upon this outdated framework. A most humbling admission, one might say.

cycle theory is dead.

My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.

Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we…

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju)

From Public Frenzy to Calculated Strategy

Mr. Ju observed a significant alteration: the substantial holders are no longer divesting themselves of Bitcoin to the retail investors. Instead, they are selling to newer, and perhaps more resolute, holders – frequently the institutional players. This change, it would seem, has completely reshaped the landscape of the entire crypto market. 🧐

According to the on-chain data provided by CryptoQuant, the number of those who hold – those accumulating and retaining Bitcoin for the long term – now exceeds the number of those who merely trade. A most encouraging sign, if one is inclined to optimism.

Over the past two years, the ownership of Bitcoin amongst the general public has diminished, while entities of considerable size – such as Exchange Traded Funds, hedge funds, and even corporate treasuries – have stepped forward to accumulate BTC. One can scarcely blame them, considering the potential for profit.

In the words of a Mr. Burakkesmeci, an analyst of some discernment: “This cycle bears no resemblance to the exuberance of 2021. There is no widespread enthusiasm, nor are the social media platforms awash with pronouncements. Quiet, and shrewd, money is presently on stage, while the majority remain as mere observers.”

This sentiment, despite Bitcoin’s recent gains, differs markedly from the previous retail-led manias. Consequently, the market is now more mature, and driven by data, than it has ever been. One hopes, however, that this maturity will not prove to be a façade.

Predicting the Next Downturn: A Most Difficult Task

One of the most intriguing consequences of this alteration is the increased difficulty in predicting the inevitable periods of decline.

In times past, market peaks were often precipitated by a panic amongst the retail investors. The incessant chatter on social media, overextended positions, and emotionally-driven decisions provided readily apparent signals. Now, however, those cues have fallen silent. 🤫

The current market is governed by institutions that operate with longer time horizons and a degree of composure rarely seen in the general public. These entities possess a greater degree of discipline and are more strategic in their approaches.

What, then, does a period of decline resemble in this new age?

Mr. Ju posed this very question. He also cautioned that should institutional sentiment turn unfavourable, the repercussions could be both swift and severe. Worse, they might prove more difficult to anticipate. A rather disquieting prospect, wouldn’t you agree?

This presents a novel challenge for traders, analysts, and even those responsible for managing risk. Without the familiar signs, determining the optimal moment to enter or exit the market may require a complete overhaul of existing indicators and the development of new ones. A considerable undertaking, to be sure!

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2025-07-25 20:02