Bitcoin’s Drama: A Rollercoaster Ride of $130,000 or a Humble $98,000?

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Key Takeaways:

  • Alas! Bitcoin has dropped by $103,500, as traders prudently cut risk ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision. How very cautious of them!

  • Technical analysis whispers that Bitcoin may soon bounce between $102,000 and $104,000. But then again, the future is ever so unpredictable, is it not?

  • Onchain data reveals that mid-term holders are happily cashing in on profits. They’re on a roll, it seems!

It appears that Bitcoin (BTC) has taken a small dip to $103,300, as traders, ever so prudent, are reducing risk before tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Following the bearish weekly candle close, some are predicting a reversal of trends. Geopolitical tensions, especially the Israel-Iran conflict, are only adding more stress to the situation, with all eyes now on Wednesday’s interest rate decision.

According to Bitcoin Vector, a Swissblock-backed market pulse aggregator, the decline is not merely macro-driven. Oh no, it aligns with seasonal weaknesses, adding a touch of drama to the situation, and some falling onchain network growth, suggesting that spot demand may be cooling off. It seems over $434 million in BTC futures were liquidated in the past day alone. Traders appear to be playing it safe rather than diving into fresh exposure. Oh, the thrill of cautiousness!

Nonetheless, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index—a metric comparing BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance—has remained largely positive throughout June, signaling steady demand from U.S. investors. But alas, this demand has hardly been enough to move the price in any grand manner due to the larger market’s caution.

Further weight has been added by mid-cycle holders (6–12 months) realizing a rather substantial $904 million in profits on Monday. They accounted for 83% of the total realized gains, shifting the balance of power from long-term holders. Such a marvelous rotation in market dynamics! It’s as though everyone is rushing to cash in on recent highs. Quite the spectacle! 😱

Yet, long-term investors remain unfazed. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. has observed that long-term holders (LTHs) continue to refrain from large-scale spending, which historically has been an optimistic sign. They seem to know something we don’t. Perhaps it’s their impeccable patience? 🧐

On the technical front, the MVRV Z-score suggests that Bitcoin is still fundamentally undervalued, and a healthy momentum in Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) hints at selective profit-taking rather than sheer panic. In fact, such setups have historically preceded rallies of 18–25% within a mere 6–8 weeks. Dare we imagine a $130,000 price target by the end of Q2? A bit ambitious, one might say, but a lovely thought nonetheless. 🍀

Could Bitcoin’s Bottom Be $102,000? Here’s Why…

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin may be nearing a short-term bottom between $102,000 and $104,000. It seems that a dense liquidity pocket and a historical order block intersect in that range, much like fate itself conspiring against us. 😏

Furthermore, the Bollinger Bands are hinting at an imminent volatility spike, and we’re all holding our breath for what’s next. A technical reaction from the $102,000 range is expected, and the $106,000 level could act as dynamic resistance. Should Bitcoin reclaim that level, we could be looking at a bullish reversion toward $112,000. How utterly delightful that would be! But if it falls below $100,000… well, let’s not think too much about that scenario, shall we?

Data from Alphractal also positions $98,300 as a key support level. Should Bitcoin breach this level, it could signal a deeper correction. But, as Alphractal wisely puts it:

“As long as Bitcoin stays above the STH Realized Price, we can still consider the market to be bullish. The scenario would only change if BTC loses the $98K level aggressively, which could trigger a deeper drop.”

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2025-06-18 01:04