Right, so Christmas is looming, and apparently, the crypto world is having a bit of a wobble. It’s all very dramatic, honestly. Thin liquidity, less leverageā¦itās like everyoneās suddenly remembered they have families or something. š¤·āāļø A rather enormous options expiry is threatening to stir things up, but, like, history suggests it’ll all be fine in January. Probably. Don’t quote me.
Bitcoin‘s Currently Stuck But Options Are Looming
Bitcoin’s looking a bitā¦beige, shall we say? Stuck in a trading range while gold‘s off galavanting to new highs. Traders are doing that thing where they disappear for mince pies and family arguments. This means liquidity is down, which is just perfect for some, shall we say, “interesting” price action. š¬
Apparently, people are less keen on taking risks these days. Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest had a bit of a wobble, and Ether followed suit. They’re not even trying to find new trades, theyāre just closing everything down. Which, you know, sensible. But also creates a nice little setup for things to getā¦spicy. š„
Apparently, seasonality is a thing. Some clever people at QCP say bitcoin likes to do a 5-7% swing around Christmas. Not because of any actual news, just becauseā¦reasons. Itās all very festive. š
Options Expiry – Oh Good
This week’s options expiry is a whopper. Like, 300,000 BTC options, which translates to about $23.7 billion. And then there’s another 446,000 tied to Blackrockās spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT). You following? š„“
Half of Deribit’s open interest is expiring on Boxing Day, apparently. Strikes are clustered at $85,000 and $100,000, with a āmax painā zone near $95,000. Which soundsā¦uncomfortable. And people are slowly getting less convinced about a price drop, but theyāre not entirely sold on a rally either. Itās a lukewarm take, really. ā
Stress indicators are calming down, which is nice. Bitcoin risk reversals are lessā¦anxious than they were. People still like protection in case things go south, but things are generally looking slightly moreā¦chill.
But honestly, history tells us this is all a bit of a flash in the pan. Unless something genuinely surprising happens, bitcoin’s probably going to potter around until January when everyoneās back from their holidays and vaguely remembers what they were doing. š
FAQ š
- Why is Bitcoin all over the place before Christmas?
Because everyone’s gone home, which means less liquidity and less leverage, and therefore, more potential forā¦well, you know. Drama. - Whatās the deal with the options expiry?
About $23.7 billion worth of BTC options and IBIT-related contracts are expiring which, if you’re into that sort of thing, could add to the chaos. - Are people betting on up or down?
Itās a bit of a shrug right now. Some cautious optimism, but mostly justā¦waiting. - Will things stay this way for long?
Probably not. History suggests it’ll all settle down after the holidays. Unlessā¦well, we won’t dwell.
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2025-12-25 08:58