Well, shucks, folks! It seems that Fred Krueger has gone and upset the applecart with his latest pronouncements on Bitcoin. According to him, the old halving-based model is about as useful as a one-legged stool when it comes to predicting the long-term behavior of that most mercurial of cryptocurrencies.
Krueger’s argument is that them old market cycles were driven by the halving of block rewards, but nowadays it’s the institutional demand that’s calling the shots. And we’re not just talking about your run-of-the-mill institutional demand, neither. No sirree, we’re talking about the big boys: Bitcoin ETFs and treasury-focused buyers. As Krueger puts it, “The reduction from 450 BTC/day to 225 BTC/day is minor when ETFs and treasury companies are collectively buying 5,000 BTC per day.” That’s like saying a gnat is a minor nuisance when you’ve got a swarm of locusts on your hands!
Krueger’s also taken a swipe at all them folks who think they can time the market top. “We don’t know when the top will happen,” he says, and trying to predict it is about as reliable as a weather forecast from a chicken’s entrails. He reckons it’s a mighty fine way to lose your shirt, too.
So what’s a fella to do, then? Krueger’s advice is to take a leaf out of the Kelly Criterion’s book and adopt a more disciplined, long-term strategy. That means holding a steady 70% allocation and rebalancing when needed. “It will capture most of the massive power law return,” he says. “So chill at 70%. Rebalance. Enjoy life.” Sounds like a mighty fine plan to me, especially the “enjoy life” part! 🌴
It seems that Krueger’s comments are part of a growing trend in crypto market thinking, where institutional flows are redefining the drivers of price cycles and giving them old legacy models the old heave-ho. I reckon it’s high time for a change, don’t you? 🤔
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2025-06-16 12:45