Bitcoin’s Roller Coaster: Is It the Calm Before a $100K Storm?

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Key takeaways:

  • Short-term de-risking ahead of the May 13 CPI print could be causing Bitcoin‘s unexpected stumble today.

  • Despite today’s hiccup, Bitcoin’s market structure and fundamentals remain bullish—this correction might not last long.

Bitcoin (BTC) tripped a little on May 12, taking a small tumble to $102,388 after soaring to $105,819 earlier in the day during the US trading session. This price dip caught some off guard, considering the optimistic news streaming from the media. Ever since Sunday night (May 11), headlines have trumpeted the progress made in the US-China trade talks in Switzerland, with President Trump parading his victory on Truth Social, as if he just discovered fire.

BREAKING: U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 11, 2025

As news of this grand trade “deal” broke, US equity futures surged, and a 1,000-point rally in the Dow followed, as if the entire market had suddenly discovered a new religion. But beyond the drama of US-China negotiations, Bitcoin has been riding a two-week win streak. On May 12, Michael Saylor, the ever-optimistic CEO of Strategy, revealed that his company had acquired a staggering 13,390 Bitcoin, bringing their total to a neat 568,840 BTC. Talk about a Monday mood!

In the same breath, shares of KindlyMD, a healthcare company, skyrocketed by 600% after announcing a merger with Nakamoto Holdings, a Bitcoin investment firm founded by Trump’s crypto guru, David Bailey. It’s like a Bitcoin love story, isn’t it?

Profit Taking and De-Risking—Bitcoin’s ‘Midlife Crisis’

Bitcoin’s adoption is accelerating, but even the mighty need a pit stop. Data from Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin’s price might pause for a moment after gaining 9% over the past week. The analytics firm warned:

“BTC Supply Mapping shows sustained strength in new demand. First-Time Buyers RSI has held at 100 all week. But Momentum Buyers remain weak (RSI ~11), and Profit Takers are rising. If fresh inflows slow, lack of follow-through could lead to consolidation.”

The crypto market is feeling a little indecisive—an uptick in selling on major exchanges is noticeable, and as BTC approached $106,000, a sell wall appeared, as if the market was politely saying, “That’s enough for today, folks.”

From a trader’s perspective, a lot of this selling could be due to cautious moves ahead of the May 13 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. After all, who wouldn’t be a little jittery with such big data coming up? Additionally, the US-China trade news might have already been priced in, considering BTC couldn’t hold above $104,000 even after such earth-shattering headlines.

Before all the trade deal excitement, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was making a dash upwards, and stock indexes were soaring as if the market were on an elevator to the moon. However, Bitcoin seemed like the one kid in class who couldn’t keep up. Despite all the fireworks, it couldn’t hold its $104,000-$105,000 range, and it didn’t follow the stock market’s opening bell excitement.

As shown in the chart above, open interest is steadily climbing, and short positions are making their move while longs are getting liquidated faster than you can say “bear market.” It’s like a tug-of-war, but the rope is made of Bitcoin.

The real kicker is that spot purchasing played a huge role in last week’s rally. And with Bitcoin ETF inflows and announcements like the one from Strategy, it’s hard to say whether this buying momentum will continue—or if we’re all just riding a temporary wave of hype.

With Bitcoin charging ahead in traditional finance and the crypto regulatory environment looking a little rosier by the day, this price action is probably just a short-term correction. But, of course, all eyes are on tomorrow’s CPI report. Depending on how that plays out, spot and margin longs could surge back in force, as traders digest the numbers and realize, “Hey, maybe this isn’t as bad as we thought.”

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2025-05-12 22:20