Bitcoin’s Supply Just Got Weird After Halving: Here’s What You Didn’t Expect

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Ah, Bitcoin—after that epic nosedive earlier this month, it’s bounced back with a vengeance, trading above a whopping $93,000! Now, don’t get too comfy, because as of the latest updates, it’s sitting at $94,014. That’s a lovely 5% spike in the past 24 hours, and, wait for it—over 20% in just two weeks. Almost like a miracle, but with more zeros involved.

This jump comes after a rather grim period when BTC sank to a mere $74,000. Oh, the drama! Let’s just say, the market sentiment was as unstable as a squirrel on espresso. But hey, who’s counting the dips when the climb back up is this dramatic?

With a renewed infatuation in Bitcoin following last year’s Halving event (because, apparently, that’s what we do now), a CryptoQuant analyst decided to bless us with some mind-bending insights on BTC’s mining behavior. Buckle up, folks, the supply story is taking a twist!

Post-Halving: Emission Rates Just Decided to Go Off-Script

Carmelo Alemán, one of CryptoQuant’s masterminds, took it upon himself to investigate Bitcoin’s block issuance and daily mining output. Guess what he found? The reality isn’t exactly following the script. Shocked? Of course not. It’s Bitcoin, after all.

While Bitcoin’s block schedule is supposed to follow a neat and tidy rulebook, Alemán’s observations show that real-world data isn’t always as obedient as the protocol suggests. Yes, there’s a difference between what’s supposed to happen and what’s actually happening on the blockchain. Groundbreaking stuff, really.

According to Bitcoin’s protocol, one block is supposed to be mined every 10 minutes. After the April Halving, the block reward was cut from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Sounds simple, right? If you do the math (no need to call your high school math teacher), you’d expect about 144 blocks to be mined daily, bringing 450 new BTC into the world every day. That’s what the textbook says. But… surprise, surprise—Alemán’s analysis shows the actual number of newly minted coins is often a little shy of this estimate.

By cleverly using CryptoQuant’s “Bitcoin: Total Supply” metric (fancy, right?), Alemán tracked the real change in circulating supply. What did he find? Well, let’s just say that the reality of Bitcoin’s supply looks like a hot mess of discrepancies, and not the neat, predictable flow the protocol promised.

So what’s causing this? Could it be slower block times, those pesky difficulty adjustments, or maybe just the occasional mining congestion? Whatever the reason, it’s clear that Bitcoin doesn’t always stick to the 10-minute block party schedule. Not that we’re complaining—after all, who doesn’t love a bit of unpredictability?

Bitcoin’s On-Chain Metrics Are Like the New Crystal Ball

The beauty of Alemán’s findings is that they offer a fresh perspective on how Bitcoin’s supply should be tracked. Forget relying solely on those theoretical projections (yawn). Instead, we have on-chain metrics that give us a real-time look at what’s actually going down on the blockchain. It’s like finally seeing behind the curtain—except with more numbers and fewer wizards.

These insights are essential for anyone looking to understand how Bitcoin is behaving post-Halving. The block reward cut (hello, 50% reduction!) was meant to keep inflation in check, but Alemán’s data suggests that watching the total supply grow on-chain gives us a much clearer picture of the actual BTC entering circulation every day. This could totally change the game for how we calculate supply and demand… and, more importantly, how miners estimate their profits. Spoiler: It’s not as straightforward as it sounds.

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2025-04-24 08:55