Pray tell, dear reader, what mischief has Bitcoin [BTC] been up to of late? At the hour of my quill touching parchment, it had, with a sly wink, crept above the formidable $70k resistance. A surge in demand, most unexpected, occurred around the $65k-zone over the weekend, despite the general gloom that shrouds the wider market like a damp cloak on a November morn.
Yet, for all its bravado, Bitcoin remains a significant distance from the miner costs of $89k-$91k. A gap, one might say, as wide as Mrs. Bennet’s hopes for her daughters’ marriages. AMBCrypto, ever the vigilant observer, previously noted that exchange flow dynamics hinted at a bullish sign for the prices. The Inter-exchange flow pulse metric, a most reliable barometer, saw a bullish crossover-a harbinger, historically, of early-cycle accumulation phases. Might this be the dawn of Bitcoin’s next grand rally? One can only speculate with bated breath.
“Bitcoin is dead,” proclaims the Rainbow Chart with a dramatic flourish
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, a long-term, logarithmic marvel, maps out whether our dear Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued in the grand scheme of things. Investors, ever the anxious lot, keep a keen eye on this chart to discern if cyclical tops and bottoms are nigh. At present, BTC resides in an extremely undervalued area-the purple region, marked with such drama, declares it so cheap as to be in the “Bitcoin is dead” zone. A declaration, one might add, as hyperbolic as Lady Catherine de Bourgh’s disapproval.
Nowhere to go but up? Or so one might hope.
According to the astute observations of crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., short-term holders have continued to realize losses. The STH supply fell from 6.06 million BTC to 5.92 million, a departure of 140k from the cohort. Capitulation, one might surmise, or perhaps the coins have simply matured, their ages crossing the 155-day STH threshold. A natural progression, much like the aging of a fine wine-though perhaps less palatable.
The realized price, or the average cost-basis of all BTC in circulation, stands at $89k. The market price, however, lingers at $70k-a gap of 21.3%. Such a disparity, argues our analyst, has created a supply overhang for Bitcoin. Short-term holders, ever eager to avoid losses, would seize upon rallies to part with their BTC. A game of cat and mouse, if ever there was one.
The LTH/STH SOPR metric reveals that short-term holders are indeed selling at a loss, while long-term holders remain steadfast, neither selling nor absorbing the supply. The SOPR ratio stands at 0.89-a figure that, at the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms, fell to 0.48 and 0.50, respectively. To declare a structural low at this juncture, one might say, would be as premature as Mr. Collins proposing to Elizabeth Bennet.
Final Reflections
- Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart declares BTC to be at extremely undervalued price levels-a bargain, if one dares to believe it.
- On-chain metrics hint at a sizeable supply overhang up to $89k, suggesting that the current bounce may not suffice to herald a long-term low. A cautionary tale, indeed.
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2026-03-10 09:59