As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade of market observations under my belt, I find myself intrigued by the recent predictions and speculations surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in November. Having navigated numerous market fluctuations, I’ve learned to keep a keen eye on economic indicators, especially those that could impact high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
After the publication of U.S. employment figures, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder has forecasted that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates even more, by 0.25 percentage points. According to his prediction, this reduction would occur when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes in November.
US Job Data Drops From August Level
The U.S. job market surpassed predictions in September’s employment report, as indicated by data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday. The report showed that the labor market grew by an unexpected 254,000 jobs last month, compared to the 150,000 jobs economists had anticipated. Additionally, it was discovered that during July and August, the U.S. economy actually added 72,000 more jobs than initially reported.
Moreover, the U.S. unemployment rate for September decreased to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in August. It’s worth mentioning that the bank reduced interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18. Given this new employment data, Rieder suggests that the U.S. economy might be able to tolerate another interest rate cut during the November meeting. He thinks that such a move would create a more moderate trajectory for the American economy.
Similarly to Rieder, Morgan Stanley’s Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter shares this belief; however, Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, holds a different opinion and believes that the Federal Reserve may not opt for any interest rate reduction at all.
Given the robust job market indicated by last month’s employment data, it seems the main discussion at the Federal Reserve should shift towards considering if they need to ease their monetary policy at all,” he asserted. “The possibility of a 0.5 percentage point reduction has essentially vanished.
Currently, there’s disagreement among market analysts regarding whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point (25 basis points). Notably, Bank of America (BofA) appears to share this optimism for such a reduction.
Bitcoin and Crypto Market After 25 bps Rate Cut
Lower interest rates might propel high-risk assets such as Bitcoin to unprecedented heights (All-Time Highs). These types of assets tend to react swiftly to even the smallest indications of monetary relaxation. For instance, when a 50 basis point rate cut occurred on September 18, Bitcoin surged approximately to $62,000.
From then up until present, Bitcoin has experienced some price changes. As I write this, the leading cryptocurrency is being traded at $62,139.71, representing a 3.34% rise over the past day. If the projected 0.25% increase materializes, Bitcoin could receive another boost, potentially surpassing its previous all-time high and reaching beyond $73,750.
It is worth noting that the price of the digital asset is influenced by a number of factors as well. These include global economic conditions, inflation expectations, central bank policies, regulatory environment, institutional investment and mrket sentiment.
Read More
- ENA PREDICTION. ENA cryptocurrency
- SOL PREDICTION. SOL cryptocurrency
- USD PHP PREDICTION
- BTC PREDICTION. BTC cryptocurrency
- USD ZAR PREDICTION
- LUNC PREDICTION. LUNC cryptocurrency
- WIF PREDICTION. WIF cryptocurrency
- USD COP PREDICTION
- BRISE PREDICTION. BRISE cryptocurrency
- HYDRA PREDICTION. HYDRA cryptocurrency
2024-10-04 20:12