BTC and Gold: A Tale of Two Assets in a Shutdown Wonderland!

by

What to know:

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin, that digital paragon of modern excess, may be entering a phase so decisive it makes a Victorian duel look tame. Macro forces and crypto’s own peculiar charm converge, like a bad art party in a gold vault.

With the U.S. government shut down-politicians finally taking a well-earned holiday-traders have turned to alternative assets. Bitcoin soared to $120,000 (a 9% weekly rally), while gold, that old-world relic, rose 2.9% to $3,900. One must wonder if the SEC staff is currently sipping margaritas in Tijuana, furloughed and free.

The shutdown has left 90% of SEC staff unemployed and the CFTC with enough people to play croquet. Markets, ever the drama queens, rallied, betting the Fed will slash rates by 25 bps this month. A private payroll drop and delayed data? Pfft. Nothing a little panic and greed can’t fix.

“Traders lack catalysts,” said Jake Ostrovskis of Wintermute, “but gold and equities keep dancing like it’s 2023.” Subtle commitment? Please. The only commitment here is to higher trends and lower rates.

Lower interest rates make risk assets-cryptocurrencies, anyone?-as appealing as a new dress at a charity gala. And October, that fabled month of Black Fridays and pumpkin spice, has historically been kind to Bitcoin. “Far from a speculative outlier,” said Gadi Chait of Xapo Bank, “bitcoin asserts itself as a digital asset with staying power.” Or, as I call it, crypto’s version of a monocle.

On-chain data? Oh, it’s *teeming* with demand-62,000 BTC monthly since July. ETFs and whales are the real party crashers, with Q4 2024 holdings surging 71%. One suspects the whales are just avoiding the SEC’s tea party.

DeFi’s share of trading activity? Climbing like a Victorian maiden on a trapeze. Eddie Zhang of dYdX Labs gushes: “Asia’s energy is renewing! DeFi is fulfilling its promise!” Or, as the rest of us know it, the next big thing that’ll collapse by 2026.

Looking ahead, expect ETF delays (because nothing says “trust” like shutting down the government) and Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade. Stay alert! Or don’t. It’s crypto, after all.

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

  • Day 2 of 3: Lightning Plus Plus Berlin (because lightning needs more pluses)
  • Oct. 3: DePIN Day Singapore 2025 (PINs are so 2015)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • The crypto market rose on Friday with tokens including ETH, SOL and XRP all rising more than 2%, while smaller altcoins like ETHFI and CAKE climbed as much as 25%. 🦄
  • Bitcoin hit $120,000, aiming for its August high. But this time? Muted. Like a whisper in a cathedral. 🤐
  • Altcoins thrive when Bitcoin consolidates, capital rotating like a carousel of chaos. 🎢
  • Some tokens, however, were dealt a grueling 43% decline. Leverage: the financial equivalent of walking a tightrope in stilettos. 💸
  • Plasma’s XPL token stutters amid rumors of market makers shorting for the founding team. Denials? Naturally. 🤡

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC futures? Bullish and open interest at $32B. The three-month basis is 8%-because why not? 🚀
  • Funding rates diverge: Deribit’s at 25%, while Bybit’s neutral. Aggressive longs, anyone? 🕵️♂️
  • BTC options? Neutral. Put-call volume at 52.25%, but decreasing. Bulls are moderating their conviction like a lukewarm soufflé. 🥚
  • 1-week skew flat at 0.33%. Balanced volatility? A rare bird indeed. 🐦
  • Coinglass shows $380M liquidations, 35-65 split. Binance’s heatmap flags $121,300 as a core level. Watch closely, or don’t. It’s crypto. 🎯

Market Movements

  • BTC: -0.3% from Thursday at $120,378.11 (24hrs: +1.44%)
  • ETH: -0.4% at $4,476.43 (24hrs: +2.05%)
  • CoinDesk 20: -0.55% at 4,297.29 (24hrs: +1.59%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate: 2.87% (unchanged)
  • BTC funding rate: 0.0023% (2.5185% annualized) on KuCon

  • DXY: 97.76 (unchanged)
  • Gold futures: +0.39% at $3,883.00
  • Silver futures: +1.87% at $47.24
  • Nikkei 225: +1.85% at 45,769.50
  • Hang Seng: -0.54% at 27,140.92
  • FTSE: +0.63% at 9,486.91
  • Euro Stoxx 50: +0.16% at 5,654.70
  • DJIA: +0.17% at 46,519.72
  • S&P 500: +0.06% at 6,715.35
  • Nasdaq Composite: +0.39% at 22,844.05
  • S&P/TSX Composite: +0.18% at 30,160.59
  • S&P 40 Latin America: -0.42% at 2,893.79
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate: -0.2 bps at 4.088%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures: +0.27% at 6,785.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures: +0.28% at 25,180.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index: +0.28% at 46,937.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.79% (unchanged)
  • Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03722 (unchanged)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,059 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $50.69
  • Total Fees: 4.14 BTC / $495,121
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 141,485 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.2 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.81%

Technical Analysis

  • Ether deviated into the weekly range after touching the 100-day EMA. Now at $4,500, trading above key EMAs but in a bearish order block. Bulls must break above this level for a retest of all-time highs. Or not. It’s crypto. 🎲

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): +7.48% closed at $372.07 (+0.36% at $373.42)
  • Circle Internet (CRCL): +16.04% closed at $149.72 (-0.68% at $148.70)
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): +1.93% closed at $36.52 (+0.77% at $36.80)
  • Bullish (BLSH): +11.68% closed at $67.91 (-0.6% at $67.50)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): +0.97% closed at $18.79 (+0.85% at $18.95)
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): +1.69% closed at $19.25 (+0.73% at $19.39)
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): +0.72% closed at $18.1
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): +3.77% closed at $15.14 (+1.52% at $15.37)
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): +3.15% closed at $46.49 (+0.56% at $46.75)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): +9.01% closed at $30.86 (+0.42% at $30.99)

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): +4.11% closed at $352.33 (unchanged in pre-market)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): +1.06% closed at $31.36 (-0.19% at $31.30)
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): +4.15% closed at $18.09 (+1.05% at $18.28)
  • Upexi (UPXI): +11.64% closed at $7.29 (+0.96% at $7.36)
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): +4.69% closed at $2.68

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $627.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $59.03 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.32 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $307.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $14.20 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 6.64 million

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2025-10-03 15:47