BTC: Briefly Up, Probably Not

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So, Bitcoin has dared to poke its head above the $97,000 mark, has it? A fleeting moment of optimism, no doubt, following weeks of what one might charitably describe as ‘market introspection’. After a period of dignified consolidation – or, to put it less politely, wobbling uncertainly – the usual throng of analysts were busy predicting the abyss. How terribly predictable.

This little surge has, of course, thrown a spanner in the works. Or, rather, a very expensive, digitally-rendered spanner. Is it a proper recovery? 🧐 Or merely a temporary spasm, a sort of financial hiccup brought on by excessive avocado consumption and general millennial enthusiasm? The jury, as always, is out.

Darkfost – a name that sounds suspiciously like a villain from a particularly dreary science fiction novel – points out that this whole affair smacks of a technical rebound, not a genuine change of heart. The short-term holders (STHs), those excitable creatures, are still jittery. They’ve clearly been through a bit, and one can scarcely blame them for wanting to cling to what remains of their fortunes. 💸

Apparently, these STHs are less interested in ‘hodling’ and more concerned with avoiding a repeat performance of the recent unpleasantness. A perfectly understandable desire, really. As the price creeps upward, they are, predictably, cashing in. One suspects a great many cocktails are being purchased with the proceeds.

This, naturally, suggests a distinct lack of confidence. The surge to $97,000 has improved ‘market structure’, whatever that is, but has also provided a convenient opportunity for the faint of heart to escape with a small profit. A rather sensible, if rather uninspired, course of action.

Short-Term Holders Clutch Pearls Near Key Levels

It appears that these short-term investors are developing a penchant for ‘capital preservation’ – a rather grand euphemism for simply not wanting to lose any more money. With their average cost basis hovering around $102,000, the current rebound brings the price uncomfortably close to the danger zone. Naturally, they’re contemplating a tactical retreat. Aggressive accumulation seems rather off the menu at present. 🤔

The evidence, we are told, is rather damning. On January 6th, when Bitcoin briefly revisited $94,000, STHs promptly unloaded over 30,000 BTC onto the exchanges. A remarkably decisive move. One begins to suspect these people have actual lives to lead.

The trend continued with the latest push, with over 40,000 BTC in profits heading for the exit as it exceeded $97,000. A veritable stampede. It rather suggests that a lingering sense of dread continues to permeate the short-term sentiment. One can hardly blame them, really.

For true confidence to return, Bitcoin will require sustained upward movement and widespread acceptance. Without a significant influx of unrealized profits, these short-termers will no doubt continue to sell into any upward momentum, thus stifling any genuine recovery. A most tiresome cycle.

Bitcoin Lurches Toward Key Resistance

The 3-day chart reveals a ‘constructive rebound’ – a phrase that sounds suspiciously like accountant’s jargon. However, the overall picture remains decidedly murky. Having found a temporary floor in December around $80,000, BTC has managed to engineer a series of higher lows. Progress, of sorts. But let us not get carried away. The rise to $96,000-$97,000 is, undeniably, ‘meaningful’, in the way that a particularly bland biscuit is ‘meaningful’.

The larger trend, alas, remains one of indecisive meandering. The price continues to languish below the declining moving average, a constant reminder of past failures. While the bulls have regained a modicum of control, the sellers are, quite rightly, standing their ground. A rather stubborn lot, those sellers.

The long-term moving average, thankfully, is still rising. Though this does little to alleviate the general air of precariousness. Volume, unsurprisingly, is unremarkable. The lack of sustained expansion suggests that nobody is truly convinced, and the move may be a mere distraction. BTC is attempting to re-establish acceptance above the $92,000-$94,000 range, a former playground for the well-heeled and the foolishly optimistic.

Should it manage to hold above this level, a retest of $100,000 might be attempted. But a failure to consolidate could, inevitably, result in another tumble. Such is the fate of modern finance. 🤷‍♂️

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2026-01-16 07:20