BTC Price: How Rising US Treasury Yield and US Election Can Impact Next Move

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As a seasoned researcher with a knack for deciphering the intricacies of financial markets, I find myself constantly on the edge of my seat, particularly when it comes to Bitcoin (BTC). The recent developments in the US market have been nothing short of a rollercoaster ride, leaving me questioning which way is up.

The cost of Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing renewed selling pressure and is now struggling to move past $69,000 due to a shift in attention towards significant economic events in the U.S. market. Meanwhile, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have reached their highest levels in 3 months, causing worries about inflation to resurface. Additionally, upcoming elections in the U.S., along with speculation about a potential Donald Trump presidency, are currently having an impact on the overall sentiment within the crypto market.

BTC Price Action Amid Rising US Treasury Yield

Since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Bitcoin’s price has risen by 18% due to Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinting at ongoing interest rate reductions. This has ignited optimism in the cryptocurrency market, but recent trends in U.S. Treasury Yield suggest a different story.

Based on CNBC’s statistics, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield climbed to 4.2% on Tuesday, marking the first increase in three months since July 26th. Interestingly, despite the Fed reducing rates by 50 basis points, Treasury yields have grown by a comparable amount.

Moreover, bond yields have reached their peak of 4.06% since August 20th, signifying a rise in anticipated interest rates over the next few years according to Treasury yields. These yields serve as indicators for monetary policy, suggesting that investors now anticipate higher rates despite the Fed’s recent rate decrease. Despite speculations of further rate reductions in November or December, the surge in bond yields is sparking concerns about potential inflation.

Right now, Bitcoin’s price is falling by 0.74% to reach approximately $67,033, while its total market value stands at a staggering $1.325 trillion. Meanwhile, the upcoming U.S. elections are also causing ripples among investors as Donald Trump appears to be gaining ground in the prediction markets against Kamala Harris.

10x Research pointed out in their report that if the likelihood of ex-President Donald Trump winning an election increases, it could influence the Federal Reserve’s approach, possibly causing them to halt planned interest rate reductions because of his supportive stance on economic expansion.

It’s Now or Never for Bitcoin

According to well-known crypto expert Skew, the recent dip in Bitcoin’s price during the early trading of the week aligns with predicted trends. To showcase its resilience, Bitcoin should set a new peak level by midweek, as suggested by Skew.

In an ideal scenario, if the market is indeed strong, we would expect to see the price reach a new high around midweek and surpass the $69,000 mark. Conversely, if things take a turn for the worse, there’s a notable area around $65,000 that could serve as a significant point of interest, accompanied by some short-term exponential moving averages (EMAs).

$BTC 4H
Shallow pullback as expected into early week trading

Structure still intact here
– HLs

Ideally if this market is actually strong price should make a HH around mid week above $69K

Deeper pullback would be around $66K – $65K + 4H/1D EMAs

— Skew Δ (@52kskew) October 21, 2024

Conversely, commodity markets are thriving, particularly in precious metals like Gold and Silver, which have reached record-breaking highs over several years. Financial experts speculate that if Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory as Gold’s rally, its value could skyrocket to an astonishing $230,000 in the near future.

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2024-10-23 10:34