BTC Price Stares At 75% Correction Per Peter Brandt, Will $283B China Stimulus Help?

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As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of market analysis under my belt, I find myself constantly intrigued by the ever-evolving dynamics of Bitcoin and its price movements. The latest prediction by Peter Brandt, a respected trader in the field, has set off alarm bells for many Bitcoin enthusiasts, with the possibility of a 75% correction from current levels. While this may seem daunting to some, I’ve learned over the years that markets don’t always follow predictable patterns and often surprise us.

Once more, the price of Bitcoin has been impacted by heavy selling, dropping to around $58,900 due to unexpectedly high US inflation data as reported by the CPI. Despite currently rebounding to approximately $60,600, renowned trader Peter Brandt foresees a potential 75% decrease from this point. However, investors continue to maintain optimism about an upcoming Chinese stimulus package estimated at $283 billion.

BTC Price Can Drop 75% From Here

Notably, well-known trader Peter Brandt drew attention to a significant pattern in Bitcoin’s history within the Bitcoin community. On the X platform, he emphasized the idea of “market analogs,” noting that it has now been 30 weeks since Bitcoin hit its peak value.

According to Brandt’s analysis, when Bitcoin (BTC) didn’t set a new all-time high (ATH) firmly within this time period in past occurrences, it often experienced a substantial drop greater than 75%. If this historical pattern repeats, there’s a good chance we might see another significant decline coming up.

Hello Bitcoin enthusiasts,

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 11, 2024

As a researcher, I found Peter Brandt’s latest remarks intriguing. Some Bitcoin enthusiasts have expressed concern about his past prediction for 2023 not panning out, claiming he was wrong. In response, Brandt wrote: “I find it amusing when people mistake market observations for market opinions. Drivers who only look in one direction are the ones who often get into accidents.

Keep in mind that two days ago, a well-known trader predicted that the Bitcoin price could reach $130,000 over the following 12 months.

However, the market sentiment is currently bearish at this moment against the much-anticipated ‘Uptober’ rally. Also, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen three consecutive days of outflows showing that the institutional sentiment is waning in the wake of of rising US CPI for September and hotter-than-expected inflation.

To clarify, the concept of a robust Bitcoin halving period doesn’t seem to be materializing based on previous patterns. As a result, Bitcoin’s price finds itself in an unprecedented period of stability, during a halving cycle.

2024 has seen 285 days pass by so far. If the Bitcoin bull market doesn’t start within the following fortnight (two weeks or 14 days), this could become the longest period of sideways movement during a halving year – a record for such an event in history.

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 11, 2024

Will $283 Billion China Stimulus Help?

According to the most recent Bloomberg report, there’s a possibility that China could introduce a new $283 billion economic boost by this coming weekend. This move is intended to reinforce its economy and increase consumer trust. Financial analysts are eagerly awaiting an official announcement from China’s finance minister during his Saturday briefing. In the meantime, Chinese stock markets have seen a significant rally following a week-long holiday, but momentum seems to be slowing down, fueling rumors of another fiscal stimulus package from China.

The focus of any fiscal package will signal the government’s economic direction, following years of debt-driven growth through investments, particularly in real estate and infrastructure, regardless of the package’s size. Speaking on the matter, Pushan Dutt, professor of economics at INSEAD said:

For the stimulus, it’s best if it spans over several years and primarily benefits households, rather than rekindling a growth pattern driven by real estate investments. What truly matters is the aim of the stimulus, not its magnitude.

During October, the Chinese stock market experienced a significant rise, but the price of Bitcoin didn’t live up to expectations. It appears that recent economic stimuli may have been drawing liquidity away from the cryptocurrency market and into the Chinese stock market. Consequently, the upcoming China stimulus might not have such a positive impact on Bitcoin and other altcoins in the future.

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2024-10-11 08:18