As a seasoned financial analyst with extensive experience in cryptocurrencies and geopolitical markets, I’ve witnessed firsthand how interconnected these seemingly disparate worlds can be. In the current global climate, tensions between various nations have led to numerous conflicts that have influenced Bitcoin’s price action.
Despite intensifying geopolitical conflicts around the globe, Bitcoin, the most substantial digital asset, has demonstrated remarkable robustness. Following a significant surge of 142% within the past year, Bitcoin’s price stood at approximately $67,930 on Thursday, according to CoinGecko records. However, the Bitcoin market has faced challenges in maintaining an upward trend recently, with prices fluctuating between the support level of $67,000 and resistance level of $70,000.
As a crypto investor, I’m closely monitoring the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which has been raging for over seven months now. This geopolitical tension, like many others, can have an effect on Bitcoin’s performance. In this article, we will explore how the largest digital asset is holding up amid the global unrest and discuss whether it has the potential to fuel a bull run in 2024, pushing its price above $100,000.
How Do Geopolitics Impact Bitcoin Price
In simpler terms, Bitcoin functions as a worldwide commodity within the global financial system. Conversely, markets, which are influenced by individuals, can be highly reactive due to their emotional nature. They respond to various factors such as news events, regulatory decisions, and geopolitical tensions.
As an analyst, I would describe it as follows: Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, I observed a dramatic decrease in Bitcoin’s price, which reached a low of $15,476 in May 2022 – a decline of approximately 67%. While the Russia-Ukraine conflict didn’t solely cause this market instability, it certainly played a significant role.
In October 2023, Hamas launched an attack against Israel resulting in civilian casualties and hostage-taking. This event led to a minor downturn for Bitcoin on a weekly chart, forming a bearish candlestick.
In the midst of the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and West Asia, Bitcoin’s price surprisingly surged to a record-breaking peak of $73,837. This impressive rise can be attributed to the escalating excitement surrounding the potential approval of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
Despite the mounting tension, the escalating conflict in West Asia became impossible to overlook last month as the potential involvement of additional countries such as Pakistan loomed. The predominantly Muslim nation found itself at odds with Israel over its military actions in Gaza, resulting in a significant loss of civilian lives, including women and children.
The clash between Pakistan and Israel led to Pakistan launching missiles straight towards Israeli territory. This unexpected turn of events served as a stark reminder for the international community, given that both Pakistan and Israel possess nuclear capabilities.
The price of Bitcoin experienced a reaction similar to the current situation in April, when it dropped from peaks above $70,000 down to $60,000. This decline continued until Bitcoin reached a low of $56,600 on April 29th. Since then, Bitcoin has initiated a recovery process.
Will Bitcoin Defy Odds To Reach $100,000 In 2024
In April, Bitcoin experienced its four-year halving event. Following this event, the compensation given to miners was decreased by half, from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. Consequently, the number of new Bitcoins produced each day was reduced from approximately 900 to around 450.
The occurrence of this event is predicted to progressively reduce the number of Bitcoins in circulation. Concurrently, if the demand persists or remains stable, a surge in interest could propel Bitcoin prices to new heights.
After a halving event several weeks ago, Bitcoin encounters various uncertainties. These uncertainties stem from both internal and external influences. For instance, ambiguous regulations and persistent inflation in the United States pose significant challenges to Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.
Global wars continue to threaten Bitcoin’s future—a concern for many investors.
Approval of Bitcoin ETFs marks a significant milestone in recognizing the legitimacy of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, which has existed for over a decade. Through ETFs, investors in conventional markets can easily gain exposure to Bitcoin by purchasing shares on exchanges such as Nasdaq.
In simpler terms, the Spot Bitcoin ETF has had a favorable effect on the market and is predicted to boost Bitcoin’s price upward in 2024. Alongside the decrease in supply following the halving event, this could trigger a significant price surge.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Recovery Or More Pain?
The price of Bitcoin is finding it difficult to hold steady above the $68,000 mark. Although this level would provide reassurance for traders, it might not be sufficient to sustain the bullish sentiment.
Reaching a price above $70,000 and encountering resistance at $72,000 may significantly strengthen Bitcoin’s upward trend, increasing its appeal by bolstering the belief in a potential advance towards $100,000.
As an analyst, I’d like to point out that two distinct areas catch my attention upon examining the chart. The first one is the green band, which serves as a reassuring element for the long-term bullish trend and acts as a crucial support level. The second noteworthy area is the red band, reminding me of the previous hurdles we faced while attempting to surpass it.
As an analyst, I would emphasize that maintaining positions above the three Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) – specifically, the 20-week, 50-week, and 200-week averages – strengthens Bitcoin’s bullish outlook. A breach of the previous all-time high could trigger Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), propelling price action toward a potential target of $100,000.
In contrast, there’s a chance for a reversal in the current uptrend, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping down to 68 which is considered neutral, having peaked at 88 in the overbought territory during the first quarter.
If the correction persists, the Bitcoin price forecast indicates that losses could escalate and reach the $60,000 mark. In this scenario, investor anxiety might intensify, triggering additional irrational selling to safeguard capital. The downward trend could potentially push BTC to touch its 50-week moving average at $48,559.
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2024-05-30 16:40