As a seasoned analyst with a knack for deciphering market trends and a penchant for meme coins, I find myself intrigued by the current state of Dogecoin (DOGE). The downturn since August 11, fueled by the ongoing Bitcoin volatility, has created an interesting landscape that’s worth diving into.
Since August 11, the value of Dogecoin has been on a downward trend, potentially leading to a bullish pattern. The turbulence in Bitcoin‘s price has influenced most cryptocurrencies, and Doge is no exception, having decreased by 4.2% over the past 24 hours and currently trading at $0.0988. Analyzing the behavior of traders reveals that there are twice as many sellers (Shorts) as buyers (Longs). This imbalance suggests that Dogecoin’s price might dip temporarily before recovering.
Spot Traders are Killing DOGE Price
The drop in Dogecoin’s (DOGE) current price might be due to future traders selling the asset as a reaction to Bitcoin failing to surpass a significant resistance point.
Furthermore, Solana saw significant outflows totaling approximately $39 million, coinciding with a noticeable decrease in trading volumes for meme coins. According to data from Messari Research, Shiba Inu and DOGE appear to be the hardest hit, with actual trading volume dropping to around $29 million and $180 million respectively. This could possibly indicate that investors are exercising caution rather than impulsively investing in meme coins.
For the last 12 hours, the funding rate for DOGE has been climbing upwards, yet its price is declining. This suggests that traders in the futures market might be unloading their Dogecoins.
As I delved into the Coinglass DOGE Liquidation Map, it became evident that the total accumulated short liquidation leverage is approximately double the number of short positions held by traders. This disparity hints at a predominantly bearish sentiment among traders, implying they expect prices to fall even more in the near future.
A grouping of orders is noticeably concentrated around approximately 0.0984 USD, serving as a temporary barrier for DOGE. If the price increases and forces the liquidation of large short positions at about 0.1017 USD, it might cause a chain reaction, potentially pushing the price up to 0.1152 USD.
The Coinglass Crypto Derivatives Visual Screener, which compares changes in open interest (OI) and price, shows that more shorts are being opened.
As a seasoned crypto trader with years of experience under my belt, I can tell you that one valuable tool I use is this indicator that separates the price and open interest changes of cryptocurrencies into four quadrants. This division offers me unique insights into market sentiments and helps me predict potential future trends for each asset. It’s like having a crystal ball to see what lies ahead in the ever-changing world of crypto trading.
Dogecoin Price Needs to Clear $0.1017 First
Despite the aggressive selling by spot traders, DOGE technical analysis shows there is hope for the asset, and a bullish falling wedge pattern emerges. This pattern usually precedes a breakout to the upside 62% of the time. However, if the volume is not enough, it can break downwards.
It’s quite possible that the Doge price could encounter resistance near $0.1050 and $0.1153. If it manages to surpass these levels and sustain its position, it could suggest a shift towards an upward trend.
Right now, the Stochastic RSI stands at 6.61 (K%) and 29.51 (D%), indicating it’s in an oversold territory. This might imply a possible bullish turnaround is on the horizon, particularly if the price manages to stay above the triangle’s lower limit.
If Doge’s price falls below $0.0990, this could suggest a weak market and undermine the positive outlook. The potential drop in Dogecoin’s value might reach as low as $0.0950 or even further.
Dogecoin is currently at a crucial point in its falling wedge formation. If it breaks free from this pattern, it could determine the next major price movement. However, even though the falling wedge typically suggests a bullish outlook, if traders persistently sell off the asset, it might challenge the bullish prediction.
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2024-08-19 16:06