As a researcher with experience in the crypto market, I believe that the volatility we’ve seen in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 is far from over. The lack of compelling narratives driving price movements has led to a “choppy” market, as noted by Coinbase’s head of institutional research, David Duong.
As a researcher studying the crypto market, based on current predictions from leading industry experts, I anticipate that the upcoming months will bring significant volatility.
Crypto Volatility To Persist Through Q3
As a market analyst, I’ve noticed an unexpected shift in the Bitcoin market during the second and third quarters of 2024. Despite the promising start of the year with a generally positive trend, these quarters have faced significant challenges. The beginning of the third quarter, in particular, got off to a disappointing start, according to Coinbase’s head of institutional research, David Duong.
The Bitcoin market has been significantly impacted by an excess of supply resulting from careless selling by sources unfazed by price changes, most notably the German Federal Criminal Police (BKA). This was disclosed by the cryptocurrency exchange.
In the current market scenario, Duong and his colleague David Han from Coinbase anticipate that the cryptocurrency prices will exhibit erratic movements during Q3 2024 due to the absence of persuasive themes. They shared this perspective in a recent update, stating, “We forecast the price behavior to remain volatile in 3Q24 because the crypto market is currently devoid of powerful narratives.”
As the analysts focus on the last quarter of the year, their perspective gets more optimistic.
Potential Q4 Rebound Driven By Macro Factors
In the final quarter of the year, Duong points out, potential interest rate decreases and the US election in November could significantly influence the market. However, Coinbase issues a warning: should there be broader concerns about an economic recession, interest rate reductions might not always have favorable results. Nevertheless, the analysts believe that if the economy remains robust, these rate cuts could “unleash more liquidity and draw in retail investors.”
One intriguing uncertainty for the upcoming US election in November is the potential for fiscal expansion, regardless of its outcome. Experts suggest that this expansion could bolster Bitcoin’s value proposition at current levels, making it a compelling investment choice, particularly as an alternative to traditional finance.
JPMorgan Analysts Offer Similar Bullish Outlook
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that JPMorgan’s experts share my optimism about the future of the cryptocurrency market, albeit with a slightly different timeline. While Coinbase projects recovery in the near term, JPMorgan analysts anticipate a potential bounce-back as early as August.
The Approval Of Spot ETFs Seen As A Positive
The SEC’s recent decisions to permit spot Ethereum ETFs and consider Solana ETF applications provide a hopeful sign for the crypto market. While it’s uncertain how these actions will specifically impact Ethereum prices, industry experts believe the overall outcome should be positive rather than negative.
The analysts at Coinbase suggest that this situation could yield unexpectedly strong performance for Ethereum, providing it with additional backing. Even if these flows develop gradually, the outcome may still be favorable to ETH.
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2024-07-14 04:11