What to know:
- BTC and S&P 500 futures have dipped over 5% this Monday, as if fate herself decided to rewrite the rules of sorrow—and irony abounds. 😂
- The credit market now whispers of up to five rate cuts in 2025, a dramatic twist that might compel the Fed to perform its well-known intervention.
In the vast expanse of financial twilight, the markets glide into freefall like characters from a long-lost novel, each drop a verse of inevitable despair tinged with a hint of cosmic humor. 😏
Bitcoin, that defiant spirit in the world of digital dreams, has stumbled 8% to $75,800—a tragic hero in a drama where even U.S. stocks play their part. The S&P 500 futures, like wilting petals in autumn, have surrendered roughly 5% on Monday, accumulating near 15% losses over three days.
The Fed, a maestro accustomed to the theatrics of financial meltdowns, appears poised to enter once again. Traders, with a wry smirk, anticipate the familiar cadence of stimulus—a nod to the absurdity of an eternal bailout.
The CME FedWatch Tool, our oracle in this surreal opera, predicts up to five rate cuts in 2025. For the May 7 meeting, a 61% chance of a 25 basis point cut beckons, promising to lower the target range to 4.25–4.50%. By year’s end, some foresee the fed funds rate descending to as low as 3.00–3.25%.
Meanwhile, as if choreographed by a mischievous sprite, the risk-off sentiment coupled with growth scares forces Treasury yields into a plunge. The vital 10-year yield, a barometer of U.S. fortunes, has dipped to 3.923%—a figure that might well be the punchline in this absurd comedy of errors.
The popular tale insists that lower yields will ease the refinancing of trillions in debt over the coming year—a narrative that even the Trump administration seems to enjoy, despite the gravity of bygone promises.
This urgency in refinancing finds its roots in a bold shift by former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who traded the comfort of longer-dated coupons for the rapid pace of short-term Treasury bills. Since 2023, nearly two-thirds of the deficit has been funded through these briskly issued bills—debt that hovers stubbornly around 5%. Alas, what was once a temporary liquidity embrace now simmers as a ticking time bomb of expensive short-term obligations. 💥
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2025-04-07 11:51