Crypto Bettor ‘Fredi’ Distorts Trump Odds On Polymarket, Researcher Claims

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As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in financial markets and digital currencies, I find myself intrigued by this latest development in the crypto sphere. The allegations against ‘Fredi9999’ for manipulating the odds on Polymarket are not only fascinating but also concerning due to their potential impact on market integrity.

In the world of decentralized prediction markets, a researcher is pointing fingers at an anonymous crypto bettor known as ‘Fredi9999’ or just ‘Fredi’, for allegedly manipulating the betting odds in favor of former President Donald Trump on the cryptocurrency platform Polymarket. Over the last two weeks, Trump’s chances of winning have skyrocketed from being almost equal to Vice President Kamala Harris at around 50%, to a considerable 60.7%, while Harris’s probability has dropped to 39.3%.

The allegations were brought to light by Domer (@Domahhhh), a pseudonymous political crypto bettor, who detailed his findings in an extensive thread on X. Domer stated: “A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 — the person or entity — who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world. Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive guy! We’ll get back to that.”

Is Crypto Plattform Polymarket Manipulated?

Domer explained the details behind the suspected manipulation, pointing out that Fredi is said to have consistently wagered a large amount of money, totaling over $25 million, solely on Trump. This massive investment has allegedly boosted Trump’s odds by about 5% to 8%, making bets on him more expensive. At the same time, it has lowered the cost of betting on Harris by an equivalent amount. Domer claims that this tactic disturbs the balance between supply and demand on Polymarket, causing prices to become biased and not correctly represent the general market opinion.

In my exploration as a researcher, I uncovered an intriguing finding: Fredi9999 appears to be more than just one account. It seems that the entities controlling PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo might be interconnected, with an estimated combined value of approximately $28 million. What caught my attention was the pattern of large deposits, usually in amounts of $500,000 or $1 million, from Kraken crypto exchange, followed by investments solely in markets related to Trump. This synchronized activity hints at a coordinated attempt to manipulate market results.

To back up this assertion, researcher @fozzydiablo found consistent structures in all four profiles, suggesting one person was in charge. Domer acknowledged these discoveries by @fozzydiablo and provided a link to a comprehensive breakdown of the findings.

The data indicates that a sole party appears to have invested approximately $26 million in wagers connected to everything related to Trump on the Polymarket platform.

– Fredi9999
– PrincessCaro
– Michie
– Theo4

By examining their pattern of bets, we can determine the times they typically make their wagers. What’s particularly intriguing about this is when…

— Fozzy (@fozzydiablo) October 16, 2024

In addition to pondering Fredi’s intentions, Domer noticed some intriguing language patterns in Fredi’s comments and related accounts. For instance, the use of both British and American English spellings, along with unusual spacing around punctuation, suggests a possible French background. Domer suggested this possibility: “AI suspects that the writing, spelling, and peculiar misspellings might indicate a French individual who has mastered British English and spent time in the United States.

Yet, Domer conceded that there could be hidden agendas at play, such as Fredi potentially being involved in a bigger game or perhaps staging an intricate charade to mask true objectives. The researcher underscored the unusual character of a $25 million wager on a single contender, suggesting the importance of conducting more inquiries to expose any underlying motivations.

Domer speculated: “Perhaps this whole situation is just a role-playing game and somebody is intentionally acting simple to add intrigue. It might be linked to Elon Musk or another significant GOP donor. Frankly, I’m not sure, but it’s like a puzzle trying to decipher the truth behind it. Even though GCR stated it isn’t him, there’s a chance it could be GCR after all. His theory is that someone is attempting to artificially inflate Bitcoin, which seems like a plausible explanation.

This revelation comes amid criticism from Hasu, a strategic advisor to crypto project Lido Finance and strategy lead at Flashbots. He remarked via X: “Polymarket is good, yes, but I feel like it’s time to call them out on their bullshit of putting ‘volume’ front and center, while aggressively hiding open interest everywhere on their website. […] This market is not deep on traditional scale yet, especially given the magnitude of the event. Its misleading reporting and giant shadow thrown by the media just makes it seem that way. And this is assuming there is 0 fake volume on Polymarket.”

In the past, it’s been noticed that some substantial individual wagers could occasionally sway prediction markets. For example, in the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections, there were attempts by big-time bettors to manipulate odds for John McCain and Mitt Romney respectively. However, these efforts didn’t change the final election results, raising doubts about the effectiveness and influence of such large-scale wagers.

After completing his examination, Domer raised doubts about the wider consequences of Fredi’s actions: “Why should I be concerned about this? That’s an interesting point! To understand the situation better, it’s crucial to identify who we are wagering against. Is this a highly intelligent trading firm that I should be worried about? Or is this someone recklessly betting on their desires, making me feel optimistic? Could it be a feeble attempt to create the impression that Trump is winning without any other purposes?” It’s challenging to decipher the true intentions behind these actions.

At press time, BTC traded at $67,646.

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2024-10-19 05:42