Crypto Bill May or May Not Pass: The Great Political Poker Game 🎲

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Crypto Bill May or May Not Pass: The Great Political Poker Game 🎲

In a move that could only be described as “trying to herd cats with a fishing net,” Galaxy Research is cheerfully optimistic that the crypto market structure bill might make it past the legislative gauntlet. Despite a few disagreements, the stars seem to align-or at least pretend to-about a 60% chance of its passage. Because, as everyone knows, honesty in politics is like honesty in a magician’s hat: elusive and often hidden behind a lot of fluff.

Senate Meeting, probably about Bitcoin or interpretive dance

According to Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s very own oracle of insight, there’s still hope-that is, a “decent 60%,” which is roughly the same odds as someone exiting a breakfast buffet without a bread roll on their shirt. Nevertheless, the fate of this bill hinges on the grand showdown scheduled for January 15th, where the Senate Banking Committee will likely decide whether crypto gets a friendly pat on the head or a swift kick in the wallet.

“Republicans are pushing for the markup…Unclear if the two sides can come together and make that bipartisan, as plenty of issues are still outstanding.”

Will Democrats’ Demands Turn Crypto into a Boring Office Meeting?

Thorn reports that the Democrats are steadfast in their quest to regulate DeFi-because nothing says ‘fun’ like legislative red tape. They’ve thrown in three main requests, including forcing all DeFi platforms to obey U.S. sanctions, which is a polite way of saying “no North Korea allowed.”

They also demand that DeFi exchanges hand over a set of “special measures” to the Treasury, as if the Treasury weren’t busy enough, and that regulators should pipe up about “non-decentralized” DeFi, because who doesn’t love a good rulebook?

DeFi regulation graphic, probably authored in a committee room

The Democrats’ version of regulation is, in effect, a lengthy delay tactic, reminiscent of waiting in line at the DMV, and it last caused a markup marathon back in September 2025. Whether this will become a deal-breaker remains a suspenseful cliffhanger for the January 15th episode.

Meanwhile, the always-optimistic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto claims she expects a markup next week-because, after all, nobody enjoys doing their job more than a politician with a calendar to keep.

“We’re still having conversations, but it’s been very productive-open on both sides to working through all of the issues.”

The Democrats also threw in a $200 million cap on fundraising and extra investor protections-presumably because investors need extra babysitting, and who better than a government overreach? Some crypto fans, like venture capitalist Nic Carter, think the demands are “pretty reasonable”-which is probably what they said before the last market crash.

The sticky points remain the stablecoin yield, ethics involving throwing shade at the Trump family, and protecting the software developers-because nothing says “fun” like battling over regulation while the world watches.

U.S. Elections-The Political Puppet Masters Pulling Strings

The looming shadow of the 2026 elections adds a special kind of drama-think soap opera, but with more spreadsheets. According to TD Cowen, Democrats aren’t rushing to pass the bill because they suspect they might regain control and, in doing so, make the whole process a political version of musical chairs. The current favorite? Wait and see what Trump does, because nothing says “campaign strategy” like a potential impeachment.

Jaret Seiberg warns that Trump’s personal conflicts could delay everything by three years, which is roughly the amount of patience most of us have before turning to television for answers.

“We do not believe Democrats would accept this deal unless it also pushed the rest of the bill out three years.”

Pre-report predictions from Kalshi put the odds of the bill passing before 2027 at 79%, which is roughly the same as a coin flip-but a little more hopeful, unless you’re an optimist with a dark sense of humor.

Forecast graph, because charts make everything seem more scientific

Final Thoughts: The Never-Ending Saga

  • The Senate Banking Committee is set to dissect the crypto market structure bill on January 15, despite Democrats’ stubborn insistence on overregulation.
  • The bill’s odds of passing float around 50/50 before May, but with elections around the corner, it’s a little like betting on a game of political roulette.

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2026-01-07 17:38