Crypto Crash 2026? Bitcoin’s Secret Plan Revealed! 🚀

The age-old question that haunts traders like a specter at a tea party: Will Bitcoin crash in 2026, or has it already started? 🤔 Every major downturn in this market has always followed the same pattern: Bitcoin completes its cycle top, sentiment peaks, and a major correction begins a few weeks later. Just like a poorly timed joke.

So, before we talk about the crash timeline, let’s ask: Has Bitcoin already peaked, or is it just warming up for a grand finale? 🎭 The usual peak window has passed, yet the key top signals have never been triggered. If the top is still ahead, the crash window moves into 2026. Here is how the data fits together. Like a jigsaw puzzle, but with more confusion.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Supply Clock Is the First Clue For the Crypto Crash

Bitcoin runs on a predictable schedule. Every 210,000 blocks, the block reward halves. This reduces new supply and normally pushes prices higher for twelve to eighteen months. Earlier cycles behaved the same way. The 2012 halving led to a top after about 13 months, the 2016 halving topped after around 17 months, and the 2020 halving peaked after about 18 months. It’s like a well-rehearsed play, but the script keeps changing.

By this pattern, the April 20, 2024, halving pointed toward a peak between July and October 2025. Bitcoin even touched $126,000 in early October, and at the time, it looked like a textbook cycle top. Or a textbook attempt at a cycle top. 📈

If this Bitcoin $BTC cycle mirrors 2015-2018 or 2018-2022, the top was on Oct 26, and a macro downtrend may have already begun.

– Ali (@ali_charts) November 12, 2025

But one confirmation was missing. The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator, which has marked every major peak within one or two days, did not cross. Without that crossover, the October high becomes a mid-cycle high, not the final peak. That raises the question: what kept the cycle alive? Like a zombie in a horror movie, it just won’t stay dead. 🤷‍♂️

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Why This Cycle Is Running Longer Than Usual

Two forces extended this cycle beyond its normal timing.

First, ETF flows absorbed more supply than miners produced. Since early 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in more than $60 billion. Miners issue about 13,875 BTC per month, worth around $1.4 billion at current prices. During strong inflow periods, ETFs absorbed $4-5 billion per month, removing new supply faster than the network could create it. It’s like trying to fill a bucket with a sieve while someone pours water on you. 🧽

Second, global liquidity has remained elevated. Money supply across major economies still grows over 6% year-over-year, central banks slowed tightening, and reserves stayed high. Strong liquidity delays exhaustion and keeps risk assets supported. These two drivers pushed the cycle further than the usual halving window allows. With this backdrop, we move to the most accurate timing tool for final peaks: the Pi-Cycle Top Indicator.

Pi-Cycle: What It Is and What the Updated Numbers Tell Us

The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator compares two moving averages: the 111-day average and twice the 350-day average. When the 111-day line rises above the slower one, Bitcoin is usually one or two days from the final top. The signal has been precise in every major cycle. But let’s be honest, it’s more like a fortune cookie than a precise tool. 🥟

As of November 11, 2025:

111-day average: $113,394
2×350-day average: $205,767
Gap: $92,373

To project when the lines will meet, we look at the slope of the 111-day average. Over recent months, it has risen between $200 and $400 per day. At $200 per day, the crossover would be about 462 days away, which points to February 2027. In case it moves at $320 per day, the “lines meet” sit around 289 days away, which points to August 2026. At $400 per day, it is roughly 231 days away, pointing to June 2026. It’s like a race to the finish, but the finish line keeps moving. 🏁

This places the realistic Pi-Cycle window between June and September 2026. Since Pi-Cycle has never missed a major peak, the October 2025 high is unlikely to be the final top. To understand how high Bitcoin can climb before the crypto crash comes knocking, we move to valuation – the MVRV Z-Score.

MVRV: What It Measures and When It Can Reach the Risk Zone

MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, which reflects the average price at which all coins last moved. High MVRV means holders have large unrealized profits, and past cycles topped when MVRV surged into extreme zones. It’s like a balloon that’s about to pop. 🪨

As of 12 November 2025:

Market value: $2.05 trillion
MVRV: 1.81

This implies a realized value near $1.13 trillion. Past cycle peaks typically formed when MVRV reached between 3.0 and 7.0. For this cycle, the warning zone is 3.0 to 3.5. It’s like a ticking time bomb, but with more decimals. ⏳

At MVRV 3.0, Bitcoin’s market value would be near $3.39 trillion, which equals roughly $174,000 per coin. At MVRV 3.5, the market value would be about $3.96 trillion, which equals roughly $203,000 per coin. These are the valuation ceilings where the market usually becomes unstable. It’s like a teeter-totter, but the other end is a cliff. 🪜

The Pi-Cycle top also falls in between these MVRV-led projections:

JUST IN: The Pi Cycle Top Indicator shows that #Bitcoin may top out above $194,500 this cycle 🚀

Bullish! 🐂

– Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) September 19, 2025

MVRV usually enters this zone about one month before the Pi-Cycle crossover. If the crossover happens in June 2026, MVRV overheats in May. In case it happens in August, risk builds in June or July. If it is in September, the pressure shifts into July or August. This places the MVRV risk window between May and August 2026, depending on how quickly the 111-day average of the Pi-Cycle climbs. It’s like a game of musical chairs, but the chairs are falling apart. 🎵

Global Liquidity Index: Why It Matters After Bitcoin MVRV

Bitcoin does not rely on internal metrics alone. Liquidity conditions determine how far the final surge can go. The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) tracks liquidity from major central banks and the broad money supply. Bitcoin reacts strongly to this index. In 2017 and 2021, GLI topped before Bitcoin, and Bitcoin peaked shortly afterward. It’s like a domino effect, but with more bureaucracy. 🧱

As of November 2025, GLI sits near 75 and has been rising by about four points per month. This pace comes from the index climbing roughly 18-20 points over the last five months. GLI peaks usually formed near 90, which places the next liquidity high between March and May 2026. It’s like a rollercoaster, but the track is made of jelly. 🍯

If the Federal Reserve turns softer, liquidity may stretch deeper into the year. It’s like a magician’s trick, but the rabbit is a bear. 🐇

This creates a clear alignment. MVRV overheats in spring 2026, GLI peaks in spring 2026, and Pi-Cycle points to momentum exhaustion in summer 2026. The mismatch between liquidity and momentum sets up a classic bull-trap: liquidity peaks first, the market dips, and then Bitcoin pushes into a final, higher peak as Pi-Cycle completes. It’s like a magic trick, but the magician is a jester. 🎩

The Convergence: The Full Picture

All major indicators converge within a single broad structure. The halving extension pushes the cycle top into mid-2026. MVRV shows overheating between May and August 2026. GLI suggests liquidity peaks between March and May 2026. Pi-Cycle points to a final top between June and September 2026. It’s like a symphony, but the instruments are all out of tune. 🎻

This creates a March to August 2026 window where liquidity and momentum collide. The market may form two peaks: a liquidity-driven high in spring that becomes a bull trap, and a final Pi-Cycle peak in summer. A realistic top range is $200,000 to $250,000, which fits the valuation ceiling and the momentum timeline. It’s like a treasure map, but the X marks a black hole. 🧭

When Will the Crypto Crash in 2026 Begin?

In earlier cycles, Bitcoin fell one to four weeks after the final top. With the indicators aligning, the next major crypto crash in 2026 can begin any time from March to August, depending on which peak arrives first. It’s like a game of chess, but the pieces are on fire. 🔥

A crash, however, is only the first phase. A true bear market begins when lower highs and lower lows form for several consecutive weeks. In past cycles, this confirmation arrived six to ten weeks after the final top. Applying that pattern here, if Bitcoin peaks between June and September 2026, the confirmed bear market would begin between August and November 2026. This is when long-term downside pressure takes over, not just a sharp correction. It’s like a storm, but the clouds are made of debt. 🌩️

If liquidity peaks first, Bitcoin may fall 25-35%, reset leverage, and then attempt a final surge. If liquidity and momentum align later, the decline starts after the Pi-Cycle crossover. It’s like a seesaw, but the other end is a volcano. 🌋

Expected decline ranges:

A moderate drop of 50-60% pulls Bitcoin toward $90,000-$110,000
A deeper drop of 70% pushes it toward $70,000-$80,000

ETF custody may slow the fall, turning it into a longer correction instead of a sudden collapse. The key point stays the same: the $126,000 high in 2025 was not the cycle top. The real peak lies ahead in 2026, and the crash window opens soon after. It’s like a cliffhanger, but the cliff is made of glass. 🪨

2025-11-13 23:04