Crypto Traders Bet Big On Trump Victory, Odds Climb To 72% Post-Shooting

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As a seasoned financial analyst with extensive experience in analyzing market trends and predicting outcomes based on data from various sources, I find the recent events surrounding former President Donald Trump’s assassination attempt and their impact on both prediction markets and the crypto industry intriguing.

The attempted assassination of ex-President Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on Saturday has boosted his prospects for victory in the upcoming presidential election, as indicated by cryptocurrency forecasting platform Polymarket.

According to Fortune’s latest findings, although conventional surveys might present contrasting images, the betting markets of Polymarket and PredictIt indicate a significant change in the probabilities after the occurrence of the incident.

Crypto Industry Rebounds As Trump’s Chances Rise

As a crypto investor, I can tell you that prediction markets provide an intriguing venue for us to engage in trades centered around unpredictable future occurrences. In these markets, traders exchange contracts, and the prices of these contracts mirror the aggregate anticipation of market players. Essentially, these prices function as odds.

In this context, the prediction market operated by Polymarket demonstrates a noticeable upsurge in the probability of Trump’s victory following the assassination attempt, climbing from 60% to 72%. On the other hand, Biden’s chances have marginally improved to 18%, and Vice President Harris’ prospects have dramatically dropped from 13% to just 5%.

According to PredictIt, a prediction market platform, the probability of Donald Trump’s election has increased to 67%, while Joe Biden’s chances have decreased to 26%.

The crypto market’s response to the incident is worth mentioning, as the prices of the top cryptocurrencies have bounced back in recent times. According to Fortune’s analysis, Trump’s renewed commitment to being a “crypto president” if he gets re-elected has reportedly contributed to this market surge.

Signs Of Recovery

Bitcoin experienced a notable surge of approximately 6%, reaching an all-time high of $63,000 for the first time in three weeks. This came after hitting a recent low of $53,500 on July 5th, marking its lowest point since February. At present, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization is registering gains of around 6% and more than 13% within the last 24 hours and over the past week.

Stocks connected to the crypto sector, including Coinbase Global, Marathon Digital Holdings, and Riot Platforms, saw significant growth as they surged by approximately 10%, 7%, and 6% respectively.

As an analyst, I’ve observed that meme coins modeled after the previous president have experienced significant growth. For instance, MAGA coin surged by over 45% in the past week and an additional 7% within the last 24 hours. Consequently, its current trading price stands at $8.43, a figure last seen in late June.

The token has experienced a substantial decline in trading activity, with a 66% reduction in volume compared to current levels. Additionally, it has dropped by 53% from its peak price of $17.5, which was reached in June 2024, based on information provided by CoinGecko.

Crypto Traders Bet Big On Trump Victory, Odds Climb To 72% Post-Shooting

As a researcher examining recent business news, I came across an intriguing report by Fortune. The shooting incident on Saturday had an indirect yet significant influence on my area of study: Donald Trump’s business ventures. Notably, shares of Trump Media and Technology Group – the umbrella organization for Truth Social – experienced a substantial surge, rising by 47%. This upward trend translates to approximately $1.8 billion added to Trump’s overall wealth, indicating a heightened investor interest in businesses associated with him following the assassination attempt.

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2024-07-16 14:11