Crypto’s Hype Train Derails? 🚂

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Ah, crypto. Once a haven for the… let’s call them “optimists,” now entering what Coinbase delicately terms a “player versus player” stage. A polite way of saying the feeding frenzy has begun. 🧐 It seems those companies who thought amassing digital dust was a guaranteed path to riches are about to discover the laws of supply and demand. A truly shocking revelation, I assure you.

“The days of easy money and guaranteed mNAV [multiple of Net Asset Value] premiums are over,” declare the high priests of Coinbase research, David Duong and Colin Basco. Over! As if anyone with a functioning brain cell believed in ‘guaranteed’ anything in this realm. Still, it’s nice to have it confirmed by someone official. 🙄

Digital asset treasuries, apparently, are now a gladiatorial arena where only the strategically astute will survive. They anticipate “unprecedented capital flowing” to “supercharge returns.” Yes, naturally. Because throwing more money at a questionable asset always solves the problem. It’s logic, pure logic! 🧙‍♂️

Crypto treasuries at “critical inflection point”

The early adopters, those valiant pioneers like Strategy (bless their Bitcoin-hoarding hearts), enjoyed a brief period of… shall we say, inflated self-importance. But now, “competition, execution risks and regulatory constraints” are causing these so-called premiums to, shall we say, *compress*. The scarcity premium? Dissipated. Like a phantom rubbing coin. 👻

Apparently, simply copying Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy playbook won’t cut it anymore. One needs “execution, differentiation, and timing.” In other words, actual skill. An utterly alien concept in some circles. 🤣

“September effect” an unreliable indicator

And now, a cautionary tale about the spooky “September effect.” For six long years, Bitcoin trembled before the month’s supposed curse. But then… 2023 happened. And 2024! The audacity! Duong and Basco assure us that seasonality is a “particularly unuseful” trading signal. So, all those carefully crafted September strategies? Utterly pointless. 🤦‍♀️

Truly, the universe delights in mocking the overly confident. They emphasize, with a straight face, that the month of the year isn’t a “statistically dependable predictor.” Who knew? 🤔

Fed will cut twice, leaving market “room to run” in Q4

However, cheer up, crypto enthusiasts! The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver two rate cuts, thus providing the market with “room to run” in the fourth quarter. Because, naturally, lower interest rates always equate to a frenzy of digital speculation! 💸

Bitcoin, they claim, will “benefit directly from existing macro tailwinds,” like rising inflation. Ah yes, inflation. The silent architect of erratic market behavior. Investors will regain “confidence” to trade risky assets. Because logic, remember? 🤡

They even end on a “constructive outlook,” predicting continued support from “robust liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and encouraging regulatory developments.” One can only assume they’ve had a *very* strong cup of tea.☕

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2025-09-12 07:39