Donald Trump US Election Odds Hit New ATH, Analysts Eye Crypto Bill Approvals

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As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have seen my fair share of political and market cycles. The current buzz surrounding Donald Trump’s odds for winning the U.S. election and its potential impact on crypto regulation reforms has piqued my interest.

Approaching the U.S. election, Donald Trump’s advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris has peaked on Polymarket, showing a 2 out of 3 probability of victory. If the “Republican trifecta” materializes in the presidency, Senate, and House, experts foresee a rise in the likelihood of pro-crypto laws being passed.

Over the past few weeks, these probabilities have garnered noticeable interest, climbing up from 28% to 48%, as suggested by the data provided by Polymarket.

Donald Trump’s Odds Spark Optimism for Crypto Regulation Reforms

According to analysts at Presto, the probability of a Republican victory sweeping the US Election now stands at 48% on Polymarket. Such an outcome could see the GOP gain control over both the legislative and executive branches, potentially increasing the likelihood of pro-crypto legislation being passed. Interestingly, six bills related to cryptocurrency, including the FIT21 market structure bill, have already been approved by the House and are now waiting for Senate consideration.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been closely following developments in our sector and the potential impact of a Republican Senate on regulatory frameworks. It seems that such a shift could bring more favorable changes, easing some of the hurdles that have slowed progress in digital assets.

Conversely, as Donald Trump’s prospects seem to increase, his advantage over Kamala Harris on Polymarket has reached a peak at 66.7%. Meanwhile, the likelihood of the GOP securing control of the Senate is at 83%, with a 51% chance for the House. Analysts speculate that these escalating figures on Polymarket reflect growing trust in Trump’s ability to introduce favorable crypto policies.

Trump’s odds just set another all-time high against Kamala Harris.

Trump • 66.7% chance
Harris • 33.3% chance

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 29, 2024

Bitcoin and Crypto Markets React to US Election Predictions

In the face of growing rumors, the price of Bitcoin has climbed over $73,000, approaching its old record high. Many investors believe that the recent rise in the cryptocurrency market is due to expectations of a Donald Trump victory, as it may lead to more straightforward crypto regulations.

At the same time, there has been a significant surge in investments into Bitcoin ETFs starting from early October. Approximately $4 billion has been poured into these funds, reflecting an increased interest in gaining direct access to Bitcoin.

Apart from Bitcoin, other stocks linked to cryptocurrencies have surged too. Companies like MicroStrategy, known for its large Bitcoin holdings, reached a new 52-week peak in their stock prices as well.

Beyond this, it’s worth noting that Polymarket has become one of the leading prediction platforms, with wagers on the US Election accumulating to a staggering $3 billion in total. What’s more, the number of active bettors on the platform has grown significantly, starting at 4,000 at the beginning of the year and now approaching 200,000.

Furthermore, there’s continued enthusiasm for Polymarket as indicated by sustained open interest, despite some analysts from Kaiko expressing doubts about its predictive accuracy. In response to these criticisms, the CEO of Polymarket has emphasized that the platform operates with a neutral, impartial approach.

Even though there are concerns, the increasing likelihood of a Donald Trump presidency has caused an uptick in both volume and user interaction on Polymarket. This surge in wagers related to the election seems to reflect a positive market opinion towards Donald Trump’s political agenda.

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2024-10-30 04:02