As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience under my belt, I’ve learned to navigate the turbulent waters of the market with a steady hand and a level head. The recent shift in Donald Trump’s election odds has sent ripples through the market, causing Bitcoin and altcoins to take a pause in any directional move.
According to Polymarket’s data, Donald Trump’s probability of winning the presidency decreased significantly by 4.5% three days prior to the election results announcement. This development has caused Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the market to momentarily halt any significant price movements as we await further clarification on the situation.
Donald Trump Loses Majority In Swing States
Over the last seven days, according to Polymarket data, I’ve noticed that the odds of former President Trump emerging victorious were quite high, exceeding 60%. However, on Friday night, those odds took a slight dip, decreasing by approximately 4 percentage points. Currently, Donald Trump still holds a significant advantage at 58.1%, which is a 16-point lead over his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris.
In the two states of Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris appears to be regaining momentum against Trump. Meanwhile, she maintains a substantial advantage in several other key states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia.
Latest Swing State Odds (% chance of winning)
In Arizona, Trump leads with 76%, while Harris has 24%.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 1, 2024
Over just the past two days, Donald Trump’s chances of winning have decreased by approximately 10 percentage points. In the last month, investors have made significant wagers based on the increasing likelihood of a Trump victory. This latest shift might be causing unease among investors.
According to the most recent report from the Wall Street Journal, a French individual is wagering approximately $38 million on Donald Trump’s success in the election. This person claims no political motivation and identifies as a former U.S. resident and bank trader of French nationality. If Trump emerges victorious, this individual will reap over $80 million; however, a win by Kamala Harris could result in substantial or total losses for them.
Bitcoin and Altcoins Take a Pause
After hitting a high of around $73,000 earlier in the week, Bitcoin’s price dropped on October 31st, ending the day below $70,000. This decline also affected other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, and others, causing them to fall by even larger percentages than Bitcoin did on the previous day.
Bitcoin investors are becoming more and more attracted to futures contracts with leverage as excitement grows for the upcoming U.S. election. At the same time, information shows that roughly 180,000 Bitcoins previously owned by long-term holders have been moved, reducing their risk while these coins have ended up in the possession of major ETF purchasers.
Bitcoin speculators are increasingly taking on leveraged futures contracts as they move closer to the U.S. election, resembling moths drawn to a flame.
At the same time, ~180k $BTC held by Long-Term Holders have de-risked into heavy ETF buyers.
My latest piece is live for @_checkonchain subscribers
— _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) November 2, 2024
This trend indicates a cautious but active repositioning among seasoned investors, balancing speculative and long-term strategies in the lead-up to the election. For the first time in the last eight trading sessions, the total inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs turned negative as victory chances for Donald Trump dropped further. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF IBIT has been dominating the inflows over the past two weeks, with total inflows crossing $26 billion in a significant milestone.
The cost of Ethereum dropped below $2,500, and some leading traders such as Peter Brandt foresee additional falls. But if buyers sustain the $2,480 level, we might observe a recovery starting now. Presently, Ethereum’s price stands at $2,509, with a market capitalization of $302 billion.
On the Ethereum 4-hour chart, the TD Sequential has indicated a buy signal, suggesting a possible recovery might occur. To ensure this optimistic arrangement remains valid, Ethereum must continue to maintain its position above the support level of approximately $2,480.
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 1, 2024
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2024-11-02 08:07