Ethereum ETF Approval Date: Is Thursday D-Day for SEC’s Decision?

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As a researcher with experience in the cryptocurrency market, I’m keeping a close eye on the latest developments regarding the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. Eric Balchunas’ shift in perspective from 25% to 75% odds of approval based on rumors of the SEC reconsidering its stance is certainly noteworthy. The VanEck Ethereum ETF application deadline is fast approaching, and an approval could set a significant precedent for other cryptocurrency ETFs.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed a remarkable increase in optimism surrounding the potential approval of a spot Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). Just this past May 20th, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared on X that the situation has taken a turn for the better. He updated his odds of a spot Ethereum ETF receiving the green light from a mere 25% to an impressive 75%, following whispers that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could be reconsidering its previous position on the matter.

Ethereum ETF Approval Odds Surge to 75%

Eric Balchunas is optimistic that Ethereum ETFs could secure at least a preliminary approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by Thursday, the last day for VanEck’s Ethereum ETF application decision. Balchunas posits that the SEC might green-light 19b-4 filings, allowing ETH ETFs to be traded on exchanges as interim measures. With a growing sense of a major regulatory shift, his confidence level stands at 75%. However, it’s important to note that S-1 approvals and detailed registration documents for each ETF are still required. This proposed approach would give the SEC the opportunity to initiate the process while allowing ample time to meticulously assess each application before reaching a final verdict.

Respected analyst Balchunas holds valuable insights, but it’s important to note that his viewpoint isn’t the sole opinion worth considering. Other industry experts and market players are also sharing their thoughts on the potential Ethereum ETF approval this week. For instance, Eleanor Terrett, another analyst, reported that discussions between SEC staff and applicants have started. However, she mentioned that there is still “work in progress” regarding the S-1 submissions.

Ethereum ETF Approval Date: Is Thursday D-Day for SEC’s Decision?

 

BlackRock, Bitwise Updates Spot Ether ETF Application

Polymarket Sees Increased Activity on ETF Bets

Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based platform for wagering on event outcomes, has experienced a surge in user activity since Balchunas’ announcement. Prior to the news, the probability of ETF approval by May 31 was estimated at only 10%, but it swiftly climbed to almost 75% shortly thereafter. Currently, the odds stand around 70%. This signifies potential gains of approximately 50% for those who bet on approval, while opposing this outcome could potentially yield returns exceeding 200%.

At Polymarket, a platform that facilitates betting on various events, there are options available for wagering on political outcomes and social media predictions. One such bet is centered around the Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). This wager is phrased as “this bet will pay out if an Ethereum ETF receives SEC approval by May 31, 2024.”

Regulators are currently assessing whether Ethereum should be categorized as a security in light of its shift to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus. This determination could carry major implications for the approval of Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). If spot Ethereum ETFs are given the green light, it may indicate that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) no longer considers Ethereum to be a security.

Balchunas’ optimistic view is rooted in the possibility that the SEC could advance ETF approvals, even as they continue to assess the required documentation. Nevertheless, Terrett reminds us of the importance of addressing the necessary procedural steps and regulatory considerations.

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2024-05-22 21:04