Ethereum Historical Data Signals 50% ETH Price Correction From Here

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As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade-long journey through this rollercoaster ride, I find myself once again bracing for potential turbulence in the Ethereum market. The 10% weekly drop in ETH price to $2,366 levels is reminiscent of past bearish cycles that have tested my patience and resolve.

Ethereum has experienced a significant decline in value, falling approximately 10% over the past week and reaching prices around $2,366 at present. Certain financial experts predict that this downward trend for Ethereum might continue, potentially resulting in an additional drop of about 50%, according to a log regression model.

Ethereum Regression Model Hints Major Crash

According to well-known crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, when Ethereum (ETH) has breached its support relative to Bitcoin, it often results in a 70% decline for the ETH/USD pair, reaching the lower logarithmic regression trend line. At present, Ethereum has dropped by 41%, leading some to fear that this pattern might repeat itself in 2023. Recently, the price of Ethereum fell by 1.14% to $2,366, causing a loss of approximately $50 billion from its total market capitalization over the past week.

Ethereum Historical Data Signals 50% ETH Price Correction From Here

historically, such significant drops have taken place in the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2019. This pattern might repeat itself in the last quarter of 2024.

While some market participants are hopeful about a potential ‘Uptober’ surge, it’s important to keep in mind the cautions issued by experts like Benjamin Cowen. In fact, back in August, Cowen forecasted a possible decline: “I predict a significant drop before the end of the year to approximately $1200, followed by a recovery into 2025.

In simpler terms, Cowen’s prediction suggests a potential drop of around 50% in Ethereum’s price from its current state. However, some market analysts have challenged Cowen’s analysis, arguing that it may not be valid during Bitcoin’s halving period. In response to this critique, Cowen has maintained his stance.

“In Q4 2016 ETH went to the regression band which was a halving year. Honestly, the whole “But this is a halving year!” argument is getting kind of old. You could have said the same thing when ETH was $4k, and it still dropped to $1900″.

ETH Price Plummets As Investors’ Sentiment Drops

This week, Bitcoin and other digital currencies experienced a sharp decline due to the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, contrary to predictions of an ‘Uptober’ market surge. On the flip side, the large Ethereum ICO investors have persistently been selling their holdings, suggesting that long-term investors are becoming less optimistic about the asset class.

Additionally, there’s been little excitement regarding the inflow of funds into spot Ethereum ETFs, as institutional investors seem to favor Bitcoin over Ethereum during these uncertain market conditions.

Nevertheless, contrary to this situation, co-founder Vitalik Buterin continues to concentrate on significant advancements within the system. Yesterday, he put forth a suggestion for decreasing the minimum ETH staking requirement by half, setting it at 16 ETH.

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2024-10-04 08:32