As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for deciphering market trends and staying abreast of political events, I find myself cautiously optimistic about Ethereum’s near-term prospects. The upcoming Trump-Harris debate undeniably holds significant weight, as it could potentially sway the crypto market one way or another.
Ethereum price gained slightly over the last 24 hours, but the asset is struggling to rise. Between a death cross in early August and dwindling liquidity on the network, the price of ETH faces the risk of a 50% crash to $1340.
Ethereum’s challenges arise as the market recovers from Bitcoin‘s reversal. The forthcoming Trump-Harris debate could significantly influence Ethereum’s future trajectory.
Trump Harris Debate Impact on Ethereum Price?
Today, Donald Trump is set to go head-to-head with Vice President Kamala Harris in a presidential debate. According to recent polls by Silver Bulletin, approximately 61.5% of the electoral college currently lean towards Trump for victory, while Vice President Harris’ support stands at around 38%.
On the other hand, the data from the popular vote suggests a contrasting narrative, indicating that Kamala leads Trump by approximately 11.4%.
#Latest @NateSilver538 Forecast:
Chance of winning:
Trump 64% (+29)
Harris 35%
.
Electoral votes:
Trump 282
Harris 256— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 10, 2024
If Harris is deemed the victor in the debates, there could be a potential negative effect on the crypto market, including the value of Ethereum. Since assuming office, the Biden-Harris Administration, primarily through the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has been tightening its regulations on cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, Trump is a strong advocate for cryptocurrencies, which was clear at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville. If Trump emerges victorious in the debate, the crypto market and the value of ETH might experience a significant increase as his popularity and chances of winning the November election grow.
ETH Price Drop Likely: On-chain Metrics
Despite the statistical data showing Trump’s chances of winning are high, the Ethereum price continues to drop lower.
Data from Santiment’s on-chain analysis suggests an increase in large-scale transactions on the 9th and 10th of September, potentially signaling impending market turbulence or price fluctuations.
As a researcher, I’ve observed that on September 9, Coinglass Exchange Netflows showed a positive inflow of approximately $20.15 million in Ethereum (ETH). Such positive net flows might suggest that holders are transferring their ETH to exchanges with the intention to sell. This could potentially signal a bearish trend for the ETH price, as increased supply on exchanges may lead to downward pressure on prices.
Since the launch of the Ether ETF, there’s been a 20% decrease in the market liquidity for Ethereum. As per data from Jacob Joseph, research analyst at CCData, while the current market liquidity for ETH pairs on centralized exchanges is greater than at the start of the year, it has dropped by about 45% since its highest point in June.
A potential cause for the decrease might be unfavorable market conditions and reduced transactions, a trend that tends to pick up during the warmer summer seasons.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that with reduced market liquidity, it becomes challenging to execute large buy or sell orders without causing significant price fluctuations. This heightens the market’s responsiveness to larger trades, making them potentially more impactful.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Will ETH Reach $1,340?
Simultaneously with a decrease in liquidity, the price of Ether (ETH) has fallen by more than 25%, ever since the introduction of ETFs. This decline has added to the difficult market conditions.
The graphical representation of ETH shows a significant bearish signal known as a “death cross” on August 11th. Additionally, ETH appears to have broken free from a bear pennant, a pattern suggesting continuation. This market structure suggests that the ETH price might decline to approximately $1,340, representing a potential drop of around 42% from its current value. Could it be that the crypto market may still be experiencing a downtrend and has not yet reached its bottom?
If positive outcomes emerge from the Trump-Harris debate, the Ethereum price forecast indicates that the asset could potentially exceed its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, thereby disproving the death cross and the bearish perspective. In such a scenario, the ETH price is expected to soar, reaching approximately $3,600 and eventually breaking through to $4,000, establishing a new peak.
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2024-09-10 15:40