As a seasoned crypto investor who has weathered multiple market cycles and witnessed the rise and fall of numerous digital assets, I must say that history tends to repeat itself in this dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. And when it comes to Ethereum’s performance in the third quarter, it seems we’ve seen this movie before – only with slightly different actors.
2024’s performance of Ethereum prices has not met the predicted market expectations so far. Contrary to the anticipation of parallel surges with Bitcoin towards unprecedented peak values, it experienced a halt and could not break through the $4,000 barrier, even at its maximum surge. As we move deeper into Q3, Ethereum prices might still be significantly away from any new record highs since traditionally, this period has been unfavorable for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
How Ethereum Fares In 3rd Quarters
During the period encompassing July, August, and September, typically known as the third quarter of the year, has historically shown a downtrend in Ethereum’s price. This trend is supported by data from Coinglass, a platform that monitors the monthly performance of altcoins like Ethereum since its debut in 2016.
In contrast to many other months that typically have higher returns, these three months stand out as having some of the smallest gains, with a greater number of negative (red) months compared to positive (green) ones during the third quarter when looking at historical data.
To put this in perspective, in its nine years, the month of July has ended in the green only 3 times, with 6 negative months. August has also followed the same trend, with six negative months and 3 green months. September, in eight years so far, has come out in the red 5 times compared to only 3 times in the green. As a result, average monthly returns for these months are +5.51%, +6.98%, and -7.67%. Then, the median returns all came out in the negative across the board.
These displays indicate that the third quarter historically tends to be the most pessimistic. However, Ethereum has achieved its highest returns at the beginning of the year and comes very close in the second quarter. Consequently, as the year winds down, the Ethereum price is likely to become increasingly pessimistic.
What To Expect From Here
Based on past trends and current analysis, it appears that Ethereum might not experience a substantial price increase in the remaining months of this year. In fact, September could potentially bring further declines.
As we approach the final part of the year, there might be a respite for investors as prices may rebound. Yet, significant profits might not materialize until early 2025, a period during which Ethereum has historically recorded its highest returns.
If the current trend persists, I believe that Ethereum might hit a record peak in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing the $5,000 mark. This would represent a doubling of its value from where it stands now.
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2024-08-31 22:41