FBI Raids Polymarket CEO Following Donald Trump’s Victory Prediction

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As a seasoned researcher and observer of political events, I find myself intrigued by this latest development involving Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. The timing of the FBI raid, just a week after the platform correctly predicted Trump’s election victory, raises eyebrows. While I understand that law enforcement has its duties, I can’t help but wonder if this is more than just a routine investigation.

On Wednesday morning, authorities seized Shayne Coplan’s phone and electronic devices, which are the property of the CEO of Polymarket, only a week following an accurate prediction by this platform about Donald Trump winning the presidency.

Reports indicate that law enforcement personnel showed up at the Soho home of the 26-year-old businessman around 6:00 a.m., requesting access to his electronic devices.

FBI Raids Polymarket CEO’s Home After Platform Accurately Predicted Trump Election Victory

On Wednesday, the FBI confiscated the phone and electronic devices belonging to Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, during an early morning search. This action occurred only a week following the prediction by the platform that Donald Trump would be elected as President-elect.

According to sources at the New York Post, the FBI confiscated the cellphone and other electronic devices belonging to the CEO of Polymarket, a betting platform, due to predictions that suggested Donald Trump would win the election.

— Tree News (@News_Of_Alpha) November 13, 2024

At six o’clock in the morning, authorities showed up at the Soho home of a 26-year-old businessperson and ordered his devices. A person familiar with the situation labeled the search as “political theater” because they could have made the same request via lawyers instead.

A source claims that the government may perceive the market’s accurate prediction of Trump’s victory as political retaliation. In their words, the government could state, ‘We believe there was manipulation or rigging in favor of Trump’s win.’

Polymarket functions as a no-cost, open-access platform for predicting upcoming events such as elections. Our representative stated that we don’t charge any fees, don’t place bets ourselves in the market, and distribute the data from our markets freely.

For his part, the source said that Coplan was not arrested at the time of the incident.

Acting As a Key Indicator Ahead of Official Election Call

On the night of the election, Polymarket estimated that Trump had approximately a 58% chance of winning. As time passed, his chances of victory increased. By 11:43 p.m., about six hours before the Associated Press declared the winner, Trump’s odds stood at 95%.

On Wednesday morning, Coplan shared an update on X, suggesting that reports pointed towards the Trump campaign being aware of their victory before the election, based on predictions from Polymarket. A month prior to the election, Trump had a 67% chance of winning, according to prediction markets, whereas traditional polls consistently showed no clear frontrunner, with neither candidate exceeding the margin of error in significant states.

Kalshi’s platform was validated by Coplan as the “most reliable method” for tracking the election outcomes, following a court ruling that made it legal for Americans to place wagers on the election results. This marks the first time such betting has been legally permitted in the United States. In October, a federal court approved Kalshi’s election event contracts.

Despite some differences, it’s important to note that Polymarket has faced issues with government authorities before. More recently, there have been indications that France’s gambling regulator, the ANJ, may ban Polymarket due to a high volume of bets on the 2024 US presidential election.

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2024-11-14 00:34