Fed Meeting Today: Timing, Rate Cuts, and 2025 Expectations?

As a seasoned researcher with years of experience tracking financial markets and central bank decisions, I have learned to navigate the often volatile world of investing with a keen eye and a steady hand. Today, the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Powell’s speech hold particular significance for me, as they could potentially set the tone for various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.

Tonight at 7 PM UTC, the Federal Reserve will announce their recent decision on interest rates, which will be followed by a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 7:30 PM UTC.

Federal Reserve officials are expected to lower interest rates for the third consecutive meeting this week, but they might indicate a more cautious stance regarding future rate reductions in 2025. The U.S. economy has proven to be stronger and more resilient than many had anticipated only a few months back. Recent figures suggest that inflation is decreasing at a slower pace than predicted, while the labor market appears to be healthier than initially feared.

Market participants are keeping a keen eye on remarks by Powell to gauge market trends, since decreased Federal Reserve interest rates in the past have often boosted the growth of high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. On the flip side, hints of fewer rate reductions or worries about sustained inflation may cause market optimism to wane.

Fed Expected to Cut Interest Rates for Third Straight Meeting Today

Today’s discussion about the recent Federal Reserve interest rate choice by the Fed is scheduled for 7 p.m. UTC tonight. This will be followed by a talk and press conference led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 7:30 p.m. UTC.

Economic experts generally predict that the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates for a third consecutive time at their upcoming meeting. This move would lower the federal funds rate to between 4.25% and 4.5%. A reduction of 0.25% (a quarter point) would bring the total reduction since September to one full percentage point, following previous cuts of 0.5% and 0.25% in September and November respectively.

On Wednesday morning, the price of Bitcoin dipped, pulling back from its previously established record high, as attention turns towards the Federal Reserve’s meeting taking place today. The uncertainty lies in whether the Bitcoin surge will persist following Powell’s address.

Currently, as I’m typing, the cost of the most significant cryptocurrency globally stood at a 2.99% decrease, valued at approximately $103,450. Yesterday afternoon, Bitcoin achieved a fresh all-time high of $108,267, marking the second straight day it established a new record.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 95.4% likelihood that interest rates will be reduced by 0.25%, with a 4.6% chance they’ll remain unchanged. Yesterday, this probability was slightly higher at 98%.

The price of Ethereum has decreased by approximately 2.34%, mirroring a similar trend. Currently, the combined value of all cryptocurrencies amounts to around $3.62 trillion, marking a decline of 3.21% on today’s market.

After reaching a peak of $108,000 on Tuesday, Bitcoin dipped again to around $103,000 as part of a general drop in altcoins. Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE) and Binance Coin (BNB) all experienced minor decreases.

Powell’s Dot Plot in Focus: Crypto Markets Await Fed’s 2025 Rate Projections

As a researcher, I observed an upward trend in cryptocurrency prices on Tuesday, primarily due to Ripple’s announcement of their new stablecoin, RLUSD. The recent surge in Bitcoin’s value can be attributed to growing optimism about more favorable crypto regulations under the incoming Trump administration.

On Wednesday, the rally started to lose momentum as investors grew wary in anticipation of today’s Federal Reserve meeting. Typically, cryptocurrencies tend to thrive when the Federal Reserve is lowering interest rates due to their inherently risky nature.

Based on forecasts, it’s anticipated that Jerome Powell might signal a possible loosening of the monetary policy for the year 2025, as he’s predicted to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.

As an analyst, I would rephrase Greg Daco’s statement as follows: In my analysis, Chair Powell’s key consideration for the upcoming decision is to balance the necessity of a 25-basis point rate reduction against a strong set of economic and inflation forecasts. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s meeting will place emphasis on their updated “dot plot,” which illustrates projections for the federal fund rate.

In September, predictions were made that there would be two more interest rate reductions in the year 2024 and four fewer cuts in 2025 by policymakers. However, recent inflation data and cautious remarks from officials have raised doubts about these 2025 forecasts. Today’s Fed meeting could significantly influence market assumptions regarding the direction of U.S. monetary policy for the upcoming year. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is currently trading at a loss, down by 0.41%.

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2024-12-18 20:22