Gov Shutdown Chaos: Is Bitcoin’s Uptober Doomed? 😂

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Key Takeaways, or What the Scribes Foresaw in Their Crystal Balls

What in Tarnation Are Analysts Predicting for Bitcoin Amid This Governmental Farce? 😏

Opinions fluttered about like pigeons in a banana factory, with Options skew tilting bearishly and BTC getting a smackdown at $118K resistance, despite a cheeky spike to $116K. Maybe it was just teasing us?

Can BTC Still Pull Off a Q4 Rally, or Is It All Smoke and Mirrors? 🪄

Oh aye, says Swissblock, a local bottom might sprout up soon, like mushrooms after rain – if pigs could fly, that is. 🐖

In a world where wizards and dragons hide behind spreadsheets and code, Bitcoin [BTC] and the crypto realm shuddered at the U.S. government shutdown, which kicked off like a badly aimed fireball. Lawmakers fumbled the funding spells, leaving traders stuck in a gridlock as grim as a Discworld tavern after a brawl. 💥

At press time, the market oracles on Polymarket prophesied a standoff lasting 15 days – perfect for growing beards or contemplating the void. But the short-term tea leaves were a mixed brew, per the so-called analysts. 📅

Since 2013, BTC has weathered five such shutdowns, rallying in only three, making it about as reliable as a luggage cart at the Scumble market. 🎡

Meanwhile, gold strutted to new highs like a peacock in a rainstorm, highlighting the uncertainty as the shutdown kicked off. In contrast, S&P Futures slipped lower, as if tripping over its own shoelaces. Which begs the question: will BTC follow gold’s shiny path or equities’ clumsy stumble? 🤔 Shine on, ye cryptocurrency?

BTC’s Short-Term Outlook, or Peering Into the Fog of Futures

BTC surged to $116K at press time after the shutdown, like a hero dodging an avalanche. But could it keep the momentum? Unlikely, said Greg Magadini from Amberdata, hinting at another dip in the coming days – boredom is a cruel mistress. 📉

He pointed to slightly negative Options pricing (Risk Reversal Skew, or RR-Skew, as the wizards call it) for short-dated expiries, 1-week and 1-month. More puts (bearish bets, hedging like a paranoid goblin) than calls (bullish leaps of faith) in the near term. 🧙

Magadini quipped, sarcasm dripping like a leaky cauldron,

“The RR-Skew is merely “leaning” negative. To me, this remains the play going into the next week or two. A lot of reasons to be defensive here and crypto options plays aren’t crowded for defensive trade, in my opinion.” 😒

Shutdown Ripple Effects, or How One Silly Stalemate Bites the Whole Monopoly

An extended shutdown would shove the U.S. Jobs Report to the 3rd of October, making it tougher to gauge the labor market than reading chicken entrails. 🐔

Analysts whisper that this delay might force the Fed to peg interest rates steady into their end-of-October powwow – no fireworks there, folks. 🚫

All this threatens to drown “Uptober” hopes in a bathtub of bad news. Yet, Swissblock’s sages insist Q4 looks structurally positive, like finding a gold coin in yesterday’s soup. 🍲

They noted Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Profit flirting with levels that once marked local bottoms – history repeats, they say, usually as farce. 📈

On the price scrolls, BTC reversed September’s losses, but a proper uptrend to $120K and beyond needs it to conquer the $118K high like a knight claiming a castle. 🏰

Else, another rejection at that hurdle could tumble BTC to $112K or the $107K-$109K support trenches again. Hold onto your pointy hats! 🎩

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2025-10-01 14:56