Based on my observation and experience in the cryptocurrency market, I believe that the performance of the market after Bitcoin halving has been unpredictable as expected. The volatility following the halving event is a known phenomenon, and this time around, we have seen both gains and losses.
I’ve observed the crypto market for the past five days following Bitcoin‘s halving and reduction of mining rewards to 3.125. Prior to this event, both Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a significant correction, with Bitcoin dipping below $60,000 and Ethereum dropping down to $2878.
Post-Halving Market Analysis: Uncovering Surprises and Differences in Expectations
Bitcoin Performance After Bitcoin Halving
Over the past week, I’ve observed Bitcoin’s price ascend by an impressive 3%, reaching a current value of $63,524.58. Its market capitalization now stands at an astounding $1,250,843,024,207. Following the Bitcoin halving, BTC attained its peak price of $67,215 on the 23rd of April. However, I’ve noticed a shift in trend as the price has taken a downturn, dropping by 4.31% within the last 24 hours. Contrastingly, Bitcoin’s trading volume has experienced a significant surge of 36%, resulting in a total value of $32,662,374,482.
According to Alex Kuptsikevich’s analysis, the technical signs point towards a downtrend.
Bitcoin experienced a substantial decrease, moving away from its 50-day moving average – a significant indicator of bearish momentum for many crypto investors. This downturn has encouraged bears to plan their next offensive.
Bears To Take Over The Crypto Market Days After Bitcoin Halving
The effects of Bitcoin’s decrease in value are evident throughout the cryptocurrency market, as the total market capitalization has dropped to $2.34 trillion, representing a 4.69% decline. Bitcoin holds approximately 53.5% of the crypto market share and is largely responsible for this market downturn. Consequently, the fear and greed index in the crypto sector has transitioned from “greed” to “neutral.”
Almost every cryptocurrency in the market is experiencing losses over the past 24 hours, as indicated by the crypto market heatmap’s predominantly red hue. Following the brief recovery right after the halving event, the market has since seen a reversal of gains. Currently, Ethereum is trading at $3114 following a 4.96% decrease, while Solana is at $144.81 after a more substantial 9.08% drop, and XRP stands at $0.5185 after a 4.76% decline.
Previous Bitcoin halvings have signaled potential volatility and short-term price swings for investors. Both miners and investors express concerns over the token’s future supply.
Bitcoin’s halving isn’t the sole cause of the market downturn as tensions in the Middle East are escalating and adversely affecting all trades. Additionally, the detainment of Changpeng Zhao and the apprehension of Samourai Wallet founders have added to the market instability.
Will A Bull Run Follow Up Soon?
Based on the information from Rekt Capital’s data analysis, I have observed that it typically takes between 518 to 546 days for a new bull run in Bitcoin to emerge. This timeframe is significant because it represents the length of the previous bull market following the last Bitcoin halving event.
Based on historical patterns, a bull run for Bitcoin could begin by mid-September to October 2025. However, given that Bitcoin’s price chart has shown an earlier all-time high than previous cycles, it’s possible that the bull market may commence within the timeframe of December 2024 to February 2025, which equates to approximately 266 to 315 days from the current date.
Conclusion
So far, the crypto market has followed the predicted pattern based on past Bitcoin halving history. However, today the market experienced a decline, which could persist for several days before rebounding and regaining stability for approximately three weeks. It remains to be seen how the crypto market will hold up until the next bull market emerges.
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2024-04-25 16:26