As a seasoned investor who has witnessed the rollercoaster ride of various markets over the past few years, I must say that September seems to be a month of trepidation rather than triumph for cryptocurrencies and other asset classes. Historically, it’s been a bearish month, and this year is shaping up no differently with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 26 today from 48 (neutral) last week.
On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market exhibited a minor resurgence, indicating a return of buying activity within the market. This contrasts with the somewhat weak US stock market today. Currently, the global crypto market capitalization stands at approximately $2.04 trillion, marking a 1.50% growth compared to the previous day.
Historically, September has often been a bullish month for both cryptocurrencies and other asset classes. However, at present, the market sentiment appears to be “fearful” among investors, as the Fear & Greed Index has decreased to 26 today from its neutral level of 48 last week.
Crypto Market Flashes Signs of Bearishness
QCP Capital predicts the downtrend of the crypto market to gradually fade in September itself. This is based on historical data of the strongest bullish seasonality in October. Bitcoin price has recorded positive returns and an average gain of 22.9% in 8 out of 9 times in October month historically.
In contrast to the bearish sentiment in September, the seasonal trends have prompted a persistent pattern of call purchases in the volume market. Today, our trading desk reported an additional 150 times $80K calls for December being bought.
If the same trend repeats itself this year, it might prove beneficial to buy stocks when they dip in September and sell them either in October or closer to the end of the year to realize those profits.
Despite a generally negative outlook, the overall Bitcoin futures open interest experienced a 1% rise over the past 24 hours. Although trading on the CME remains subdued, there’s continued demand for futures on platforms such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX, according to Coinglass data. This suggests that derivatives traders are still actively buying, but are doing so with a degree of caution due to uncertainties in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin Drops After US ISM Manufacturing PMI Data
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Coinglass data shows more than $100 million were liquidated across the crypto market amid this selloff. Of these, $66 million long positions were liquidated and nearly $44 million short positions were liquidated on Tuesday.
More than 40,000 traders had their positions closed (liquidated) on the cryptocurrency exchange Binance, with the largest single such closure involving the sale of ETH for USDT worth approximately $1.84 million.
Bitcoin’s price is finding it tough to surpass $60,000 due to turmoil within the cryptocurrency market. Today, Bitcoin’s value has dropped from its gains, reaching an intraday low of $57,568. Additionally, trading activity has decreased by 10% over the past day, suggesting reduced enthusiasm among investors.
A notable finding on the Bitcoin 2-month graph: the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) has now indicated a shift from a bullish trend to a bearish one. Over the past decade, such a signal has typically been followed by a substantial drop of approximately 75.50%!
— Ali (@ali_charts) September 3, 2024
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2024-09-03 19:53