Is Bitcoin At Risk? What Google’s New Quantum Chip Means

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As an analyst with over two decades of experience in the tech industry, I’ve witnessed the rapid evolution of technology and its implications for various sectors. The unveiling of Google’s Willow quantum computing chip is undeniably a game-changer, especially when it comes to cryptography.

On December 9th, Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai unveiled “Willow,” a quantum computing chip which he believes is a significant step towards building scalable quantum systems, sparking discussions about potential impacts on Bitcoin‘s future cryptographic safety. For a long time, quantum computing has been touted for its potential breakthroughs, but Willow’s reported capacity to significantly decrease error rates and handle complex computational tasks previously thought impossible has revitalized discussions regarding its effects on cryptography, specifically the secure foundations of Bitcoin.

On X, Pichai stated that the 105-qubit chip, named Willow, has the ability to “dramatically cut down errors” as it operates at scale – something researchers have been working tirelessly to accomplish for many decades. He also mentioned that preliminary tests suggest Willow can solve a typical quantum problem in less than five minutes, a feat he pointed out would take even the most powerful supercomputer more than 10^25 years to achieve.

Presenting Willow, our cutting-edge quantum computing chip featuring a groundbreaking advancement that dramatically decreases errors at higher scales by utilizing more qubits, addressing a 30-year conundrum within the field. During trials, Willow completed a standard computation in less than five minutes that would have taken… (something else to complete the sentence)

— Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) December 9, 2024

The remarkable ability of quantum computing to tackle complex problems swiftly is a topic often debated in relation to cryptography, encompassing both traditional and elliptic curve systems. Bitcoin’s security rests on two foundational elements of cryptography: ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm), which safeguards private keys, and SHA-256, used for hashing. These are generally resistant to current classical computers. However, the advent of highly potent, error-correcting quantum machines might challenge this notion, as they could make traditional cryptographic challenges effortless to decipher.

Is Google’s Willow A Threat For Bitcoin?

Following the reveal of Willow, CEO Ben Sigman from Bitcoin Libre provided a balanced response regarding X. Although he acknowledged the advancements made by Willow, he contends that Bitcoin’s encryption remains out of reach for current quantum computing capabilities. He emphasized that cracking Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve signatures with Shor’s algorithm would necessitate approximately one million qubits—a significant amount far surpassing the capacity of Willow’s 105 qubits.

Referring to the second level of Bitcoin’s security mechanism, SHA-256, Sigman highlights that cracking it requires an enormous quantity of “physical qubits,” a figure that outstrips the capabilities of Willow or any contemporary quantum systems. In summary, he stated, “For now, Bitcoin’s cryptography remains secure…

Charles Edwards, head of Capriole Investments and its founder, advises that not taking into account the rapidly growing path of quantum computing might lead to a significant oversight. While he acknowledges the present difference between today’s quantum hardware and the extensive scale necessary to break Bitcoin, he urges against underestimation.

“The level of Quantum Computing skepticism today reminds me of the average person who spends 10 minutes researching Bitcoin and then dismissing it as valueless. Quantum Computing is real. It will change the world. MASSIVELY. QC will break Bitcoin if we do not upgrade it. The threat is real,” Edwards warns.

He points to research that suggests as few as 2,500 logical qubits—well below the often cited “millions of qubits”—might be enough to challenge SHA-256. The difference between physical and logical qubits is crucial. While physical qubits are the raw building blocks, logical qubits emerge only after substantial error correction and resource overhead. Building a system with thousands of logical qubits currently requires a far greater number of physical qubits—potentially millions.

Additionally, Edwards cites numerous research findings and future projections, implying that several quantum computing companies – some of which are publicly traded and provide forecasts – anticipate achieving approximately 3,000 functional qubits within the next five years.

He describes current skepticism about quantum’s pace as akin to early dismissals of Bitcoin’s value. Edwards stressed that while the exact timeline remains uncertain—whether it’s 3, 5, 10, or 15 years out—delaying action is ill-advised.

In the best-case scenario, if we decide to switch Bitcoin to Quantum-resistant Proof Cryptography, it might take about a year for most users to transition over. This gives us less time than anticipated to take action. Matteo Pellegrini, CEO and founder of The New Orange Pill App, points out that reaching the goal of 2,500 logical qubits may seem small in number, but actually accomplishing it is no simple task.

He remarked: “The referenced study indeed discusses the number of logical qubits potentially needed to break SHA-256. While it’s true that only ~2500 logical qubits might suffice for breaking Bitcoin’s encryption (e.g., private key derivation), achieving this in practice involves a massive leap in error correction, coherence time, and gate fidelity. Physical qubits required could number in the millions due to current inefficiencies.”

The difference between the number of actual and theoretical qubits highlights why some experts remain composed, as scaling from a few hundred physical qubits (such as Willow’s 105) to millions is an enormous engineering challenge. However, Edwards cautions: “Many companies are projected to accomplish this within less than five years.

At press time, BTC traded at $97,492.

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2024-12-10 17:13