Is Bitcoin on the Brink? $74K Max Pain Has Traders Sweating Like It’s Hot Yoga!

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High IV and ETF outflows signal caution despite early dip-buying attempts.

The crypto assets took another plunge off the diving board of despair last Friday, with a nice big splash as the market floundered. In a dazzling display of financial acrobatics, about $2.9 billion in Bitcoin and Ether contracts expired faster than my New Year’s resolutions. Who knew watching numbers drop could be this thrilling?

Bitcoin Max Pain at $74K After $2.5B Options Expiry

According to market data that sounds suspiciously like the plot of a horror film, a whopping 38,000 Bitcoin options expired, totaling a not-so-fun value of $2.5 billion. And get this-the put-call ratio was 0.71. That’s right, more traders are betting on a downward spiral than a rollercoaster ride at an amusement park!

February 13 Options Expiration Data38,000 BTC options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.71, maximum pain point at $74,000, and notional value of $2.5 billion.215,000 ETH options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.82, maximum pain point at $2,100, and notional value of $410…

– Greeks.live (@GreeksLive)

So, maximum pain is chilling at $74,000, which means that level will make options holders cry harder than a toddler who dropped their ice cream cone. Meanwhile, 215,000 ETH options also expired, racking up $410 million. ETH is looking a little more defensive too, with a higher put-call ratio of 0.82. It’s like the introvert cousin at the family reunion, avoiding eye contact while holding onto their drink for dear life.

Options that gave up the ghost accounted for about 9% of total open interest. Despite the hefty price tag, most traders seem to be more focused on those later BTC expiries-think late March and June, when everyone is just trying to stay sane.

Now, if we turn our attention to the volatility trend, MarketChameleon data shows Bitcoin’s implied volatility is strutting around at 58.9. That puts it in the 98th percentile over the past year, meaning it’s been more stable than my sleep schedule during finals week. Implied volatility has been lower 98% of the time during the last 12 months, so buckle up, folks-this ride is just getting started!

BTC, ETH Derivatives Signal Caution as Spot ETFs See Fresh Outflows

Puts are still dominating flows, which basically translates to traders bracing for impact like they’re watching a rom-com where the main character inevitably chooses the wrong partner. ETH appears to be playing it safe with its higher put-call ratio and typically more dramatic ups and downs.

After the latest sell-off, some brave souls have dared to dip-buy, but let’s be real: it’s more like a light sprinkle than a full-on rain dance. Skew is inching higher, and block trades are rotating into calls. This suggests selective bounce plays rather than a full-on “I believe in unicorns” trend reversal.

Spot flows are reflecting a risk-off vibe that’s more tense than Thanksgiving dinner with your relatives. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs bled a staggering $410 million in net outflows on Thursday. Ethereum spot ETFs followed suit, posting $113 million in net outflows and no new guests-talk about a party foul!

Image Source: SoSoValue

With no new cash stepping into the ring, it seems institutional players are opting to take their chips and go home, instead of doubling down at the blackjack table.

For now, the market structure leans bearish, like a sad puppy left out in the rain. Even though heavy selling has hit the brakes, traders are still walking on eggshells. The high implied volatility, steady ETF outflows, and defensive options positioning indicate that caution is the name of the game. Prices may take a breather, but a real upward trend will likely require fresh inflows and a little less drama.

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2026-02-13 22:47