Is Bitcoin Poised For Another September Loss Based on History?

As a seasoned analyst with over a decade of experience in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, I’ve seen my fair share of market swings and trends. The recent drop in Bitcoin’s price has raised concerns among holders, especially considering the historical trend of losses in September since 2013.


Following a profitable week, Bitcoin has once more dipped, causing worry among owners. Known as the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is encountering tough market conditions with its price fluctuating around $60,000, even after an initial surge to $73,750.07. The fact that it’s experiencing a successive loss in September according to past records could make the situation look more daunting.

Bitcoin Historical Data Reveals Constant September Loss

More recently, a sudden drop in Bitcoin’s value occurred, taking the price down from approximately $64,400 to around $58,000. This event followed the liquidation of over $320 million worth of cryptocurrency and a shift in sentiment among investors.

The primary cause for this was an NVIDIA earnings report that surged by 112%, causing apprehension about the impending US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation Data. Additionally, several smaller factors played a role, including the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, Binance‘s involvement in controversy, bank failures in the U.S., and other related incidents that briefly influenced the market.

Is Bitcoin Poised For Another September Loss Based on History?

Yet, this short-term change suggests a deeper problem, as there’s been a consistent decline in Bitcoin’s monthly returns nearly every September since 2013.

According to data from Coinglass’s historical graphs, with the exception of the year 2023, the past six years have consistently seen a decline in monthly returns without any exceptions, making it an ongoing trend. This pattern has occurred previously, resulting in just three months of positive returns over the last eleven years. The data shows that during September alone, returns dropped as much as 19%, and at their lowest point, they experienced a 1.7% decline.

 

Numerous cryptocurrency investors, such as Moon Carl, have voiced worry about this matter, dubbing September as the month with the poorest performance in terms of returns.

 

In most cases, Bitcoin tends to have a rough performance in September. Will this year’s September buck that trend?

— The Moon (@TheMoonCarl) August 28, 2024

What Will September Look For BTC This Year?

Bitcoin users’ emotions have shifted towards fear over the past week, even though there was previously a sense of greed amongst its holders. It’s important to note that this isn’t unique to Bitcoin; instead, the overall sentiment across the crypto market is trending in the same direction.

As a crypto investor, I’m keeping an eye on September, with its mix of events like interest rate cuts potentially fueling Bitcoin’s price rise, currently at $60.5k. Interestingly, the charts show a consistent downtrend this month, but let’s not forget that last year defied this trend with surprising +3.91% monthly returns, despite a 11.29% decline in the preceding month. The buzz is high for another repeat of such a performance next month, but it’s essential to remember that the direction of these charts can shift based on upcoming trends.

Just like technical indicators, they demonstrate the distribution of bulls and bears in the market over 24-hour and weekly periods. This results in a price stabilization on the charts. Despite this, numerous analysts predict potential uptrends if it surpasses the resistance level at 62,727.

Final Thoughts

The historical data shows that Bitcoin’s monthly earnings have consistently decreased in September. This decline, coupled with increasing fear among investors due to recent price drops, adds to the concern. However, if the Fed decides on interest rate cuts, there could potentially be an upward trend. As a result, some investors are taking advantage of this situation by buying Bitcoin at lower prices in anticipation of a market surge.

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2024-08-29 18:32