Is Bitcoin Preparing for 171% Rally In Q4? Key Factors to Watch

As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I’ve seen my fair share of market fluctuations and trends. However, the current surge in Bitcoin (BTC) is something that has piqued my interest more than ever.


Over the last seven days, the price of Bitcoin has significantly increased by over 8.5%, reaching approximately $64,000. This robust rebound suggests that Bitcoin’s bullish supporters might be gearing up for an impressive jump, potentially boosting its value by a remarkable 171% in the final quarter of the year.

Will Bitcoin Reach $172,800 In Q4?

In light of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by 0.5% this month, attention is now focused on Bitcoin’s potential performance during the final quarter of 2024. Following the halving event, Bitcoin has been fluctuating within a narrow accumulation range between $50,000 and $70,000. The recent monetary stimulus from the Fed could potentially trigger a significant rally in Q4 2024.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez references Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical price behavior during halving events in 2016 and 2020. In the final quarter of 2016, BTC prices rose by a substantial 61%, whereas during Q4 of 2020, the increase was over 171%. If Bitcoin follows this pattern again this year, its value could potentially climb from $XXX to $XXX by December.

Bitcoin experienced a remarkable increase of 61% during the final quarter of 2016, and an astounding growth of 171% in the entire year of 2020. It’s intriguing to note that its price behavior in 2024 bears a striking resemblance to those years, leading us to wonder if history might be on repeat.

— Ali (@ali_charts) September 23, 2024

In recent weeks, data from Bitcoin’s blockchain has indicated progress, as prominent figures such as MicroStrategy have consistently bought Bitcoin during price declines. Just two days ago, MicroStrategy invested a significant sum of $450 million, demonstrating strong faith in Bitcoin’s potential growth.

Key Factors Influencing BTC Price

From my perspective as an analyst, I’ve observed a noteworthy enhancement in the market structure, particularly with the escalation of stablecoin minting and rising futures leverage, as per the latest 10X Research report. Referencing past halving cycles, this research suggests that the odds of a Bitcoin price breakout are elevated as we approach the fourth quarter. However, for this to materialize, Bitcoin would need to surpass $65,000 in value from its current position. At the moment of press, Bitcoin is trading 0.96% higher at $63,549, with a market capitalization of $1.255 trillion.

Is Bitcoin Preparing for 171% Rally In Q4? Key Factors to Watch

Conversely, the distressed cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, is planning to dispense a staggering $16 billion to its creditors. Numerous market experts speculate that this influx of liquidity could potentially re-enter the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets, sparking a flurry of activity in the crypto sector.

As Bitcoin continues to climb, market experts predict that Altseason could be imminent within a few weeks. Ethereum has demonstrated resilience, with its price increasing by 16% over the last seven days. Yet, there’s some uncertainty among analysts due to an increase in large Ethereum deposits, leaving them puzzled about ETH‘s future direction.

From my perspective as an analyst, the Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are gaining traction once more. In the recent seven days, these Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed a substantial $397 million in inflows. It was Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF, FBTC, that spearheaded this trend.

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2024-09-23 11:12