As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for technical analysis and a keen eye for market trends, I find myself cautiously optimistic about the current Bitcoin price action. The recent 22% surge from $49,000 to $60,052 has been impressive, but the prolonged consolidation around this level has left me on edge. However, the formation of a potential flag pattern on the daily charts offers a glimmer of hope for a 14.6% rally towards $68,714.
During the trading session on Sunday, the price of Bitcoin inched up by approximately 0.9% to reach $60052. Over the past two weeks, the BTC price has hovered near this significant level without making substantial progress. A quiet weekend in terms of volatility does not necessarily signal a stable outlook. Will the upward trend continue or will sellers mount a challenge for an extended correction?
Bitcoin Price Analysis Hints Recovery Amid Flag Pattern Formation
Over the past fortnight, Bitcoin’s price experienced a significant upturn, moving from around $49,000 up to $60,052, representing a 22% increase. As a result, the market capitalization soared to approximately $1.182 trillion. This bullish flip suggests a strong correction is underway to rebuild the depleted bullish energy, having surpassed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Additionally, examining the day-by-day graphs reveals the development of a bullish progression pattern known as a flag. This pattern involves two descending trendlines that initiate a brief reversal trend prior to a powerful surge beyond these lines.
According to the current pattern, the forecast for Bitcoin’s price suggests a potential surge of approximately 14.6%, aiming to breach the resistance level around $68,714. If this resistance is successfully broken, it would serve as a stronger indication that the consolidation phase has concluded.
A rise in the Bitcoin price over its 200-day Exponential Moving Average could suggest that the overall market trend may be shifting towards a more positive or ‘bullish’ outlook.
Negative NRPL Ratio Points to BTC Market Bottom
As a crypto investor, I’ve been closely monitoring the BTC-Daily Realized Profit Loss Ratio as per data from Cryptoquant. This ratio, which calculates the balance between realized profits and losses on the Bitcoin network, has taken a dip into the negative zone during this recent market correction. This metric is crucial because it helps gauge market sentiment and could potentially signal upcoming shifts in the market.
On Thursday, when Bitcoin’s price fell from $56,000, it led to a significant decrease in the NRPL ratio (-152 million), indicating that losses have outweighed profits substantially. This downward trend implies that investors with weaker positions may have left the market, possibly reducing selling pressure. Consequently, there could be an increase in new buyers, potentially paving the way for a possible price surge.
It’s common to see a trend of greater actual losses than profits during a market correction’s lowest point, which typically signals a major change or transition is occurring.
If the breakout of Bitcoin’s price falls short of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, there is a possibility that sellers may gain more control, potentially prolonging the downward trend. A bearish break below the support line of the flag pattern would contradict the bullish outlook and potentially drive the asset below $50000.
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2024-08-18 15:36