As an analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have witnessed numerous bull and bear cycles, and I must say, the current Bitcoin market is truly fascinating. The recent dip below $93,000 was reminiscent of the turbulence we saw during the dot-com bubble, but the quick recovery to $98,500 shows resilience that reminds me of the phoenix rising from its ashes.
The call of the Bitcoin price reaching $100,000 cooled off this past week, especially after the premier cryptocurrency slipped beneath $93,000 during the last seven-day span. Fortunately, BTC has somewhat recovered from the slump, climbing as high as $98,500 on Friday, November 29.
As a market analyst, I’ve been pondering the recent drop in Bitcoin prices and the subsequent uncertainty among investors about whether we’re nearing the peak of the market cycle or if there’s still potential for growth. However, after examining data from a leading on-chain analytics firm, it appears that the crypto market is currently experiencing a bullish phase, suggesting there might be more upward momentum to come.
Bitcoin Still In A Bull Market, But Blockchain Firm Sounds Warning
According to the most recent analysis by CryptoQuant, a well-known market analytics platform, they’ve predicted that the peak value for Bitcoin in this particular cycle could reach into the six-digit range. This assessment comes from the blockchain company.
The primary reason for this prediction is linked to the transaction value assessment method, which determines the price point where each cryptocurrency was most recently traded. Historically speaking, this range for Bitcoin’s price has frequently served as a signal of market peaks during previous cycles.
Based on CryptoQuant’s analysis, the realized price suggests a potential peak of approximately $146,000 in this cycle. As illustrated in the accompanying graph, the red line, which is currently near $147,000, previously marked the market top around April and May 2021.
In simpler terms, the proportion of Bitcoin owned by recent investors hasn’t yet reached the high levels seen at previous market peaks. As it stands, these new investors hold slightly more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation. However, this is significantly less than the 90% and 80% held by new investors in 2017 and 2021 respectively, which were warning signs then.
CryptoQuant warned:
The peak prices for Bitcoin are often reached as newcomers invest, buying at inflated rates that result in these new investors owning a significant share of the overall investment value.
In addition, retail trading of Bitcoin has not yet reached the usual intensity that coincides with its price highs. Typically, bull markets reach their peak when individual investors are buying Bitcoin actively. Nevertheless, this behavior, which typically precedes a market top, is currently not observed in the present market conditions.
CryptoQuant predicts a temporary decrease in Bitcoin prices in the near future. They believe that MicroStrategy’s stock price is rising more quickly than the worth of their Bitcoin assets, according to their on-chain analysis.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
Currently, Bitcoin’s value hovers near $96,500, marking a nearly 3% surge over the last day. This short-term gain has lessened some of Bitcoin’s decline in the previous week, but it is still experiencing a drop of more than 2% within that timeframe.
Featured image created by DALL-E, chart from TradingView
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2024-11-30 21:12