Is Bitcoin’s $100,000 Dream Still Alive? Historical Trends Say Yes, But Don’t Hold Your Breath!

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Ah, the Bitcoin price, that capricious creature, has once again extended its theatrical pullback. BTC, in all its glory, is down approximately 3% over the last 24 hours and a staggering 6.6% over the past week. It now languishes beneath the coveted $90,000 mark, tantalizingly pushing the $100,000 target further into the mists of speculation.

Yet, take heart, dear reader! This drop is not an unprecedented affair. Such dramatic pulls have graced us before, and on those occasions, Bitcoin rebounded with the finesse of a well-trained acrobat, provided key technical conditions fell into place. This time, our hopeful narrative again hinges upon momentum exhaustion and the audacious reclamation of critical moving averages. Oh, the suspense!

Hidden Divergence and EMA Reclaim: The Recipe for Redemption

Let us commence with the ever-elusive motif of momentum.

Behold the 12-hour chart: Bitcoin reveals a hidden bullish divergence-an intriguing tableau indeed. Between mid-December and late January, while the price dared to form a higher low, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), that capriciously fickle barometer of momentum, descended to lower lows. Quite the paradox, wouldn’t you say? When the RSI weakens whilst the price retains its structure, it often hints at a slowing of selling pressure. All terribly exciting, if you enjoy such dramas.

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This shift in momentum is crucial. It sets the stage for the next grand technical trigger: the exponential moving averages-those fickle friends of traders.

As we gaze upon the daily chart, we find Bitcoin recently losing both its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. An EMA, you see, is a moving average that lavishes greater importance on recent prices, making it a rather handy tool for spotting early trend changes-or for giving one false hope.

Since June 2025, Bitcoin has followed a series of fractals with all the predictability of a soap opera plot twist. Each time the price has reclaimed and held the 20-day and 50-day EMAs after a pullback, it has rallied sharply, as if responding to some unseen cue.

Late June saw a delightful 16.9% move. Late September produced an exhilarating 11.7%. Early January delivered a modest 10%-truly riveting stuff.

If this RSI stabilization leads to a rebound, reclaiming those elusive 20-day and 50-day EMAs, the historical expansion range remains intact, assuring us that a move toward $100,000 is mathematically feasible. But, I ask you, are on-chain metrics lending their support to these lofty technicals?

Whales Remain Unfazed While Long-Term Holders Cramp the Style

On-chain data, that grand oracle of cryptocurrency wisdom, sheds light on why the anticipated rebound remains a mere figment of our imagination.

Whale behavior, it seems, continues to be positively supportive. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have held steady since January 14. Even amidst the price pullback, whale counts have remained flat to slightly increased, suggesting that our large aquatic friends are not orchestrating this sell-off. Conviction, it appears, still reigns supreme.

The long-term holders, or “hodlers” as they affectionately call themselves, are also absorbing supply like enthusiastic sponges. Wallets that have held Bitcoin for over 155 days have increased their coin inflows by a remarkable 62%, despite the recent decline between January 14 and January 20. Who knew holding could be so rewarding?

But alas, the pressure mounts from the very long-term holders.

Wallets that have clutched their Bitcoin for over a year have intensified their selling amid this weakness. On January 14, their net outflows were approximately 25,700 BTC. By January 20, this figure had ballooned to around 68,650 BTC-a staggering 167% increase in distribution. This, dear friends, is the primary force thwarting any clean lifts in price.

In short, while whales and hodlers stand firm, the very long-term holders are supplying Bitcoin with all the ferocity of a well-practiced auctioneer.

The Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide Whether $100,000 Remains a Distant Dream

This delightful conflict shall now be resolved through the artful dance of price action.

On the upside, Bitcoin must reclaim $94,390 and $96,420. A daily close above these illustrious levels would signal a successful EMA recovery and confirm the rebound structure. Should this occur, a move toward $100,000 ($100,240 line) would represent a thrilling advance of roughly 12% from current levels, comfortably within the historical EMA-driven range we’ve discussed, if you’re keeping count.

Conversely, on the downside, $87,830 is a critical threshold. A sustained break below this level would compromise the RSI divergence and expose deeper support near $84,350. Such an outcome would invalidate our hopeful rebound thesis and affirm that long-term holder selling remains the dominant force.

Bitcoin requires no miracle; it merely needs momentum confirmation and an EMA reclaim. Perhaps a smidgeon of support from very long-term holders would not go amiss. Yet, if they persist in their selling spree, the EMA reclaim endeavor may be delayed, much to our chagrin.

If the stars align, the same fractal that has led us down this winding path since mid-2025 may yet illuminate the road back toward $100,000. What a splendid turn of events that would be!

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2026-01-21 09:47