JOLTS Data Hits Rock Bottom—Is the Fed About to Swoop In With a Rate Cut Plot Twist?

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Ah, jobs data. That glittering disco ball of economic news that nobody really understands but everyone pretends to. Well, hold on to your spandex: in March, the number of U.S. job openings dropped to its lowest level since 2020—yes, that year. Suddenly, all those “Help Wanted” signs seem positively quaint. The Federal Reserve is now giving serious side-eye to the possibility of a rate cut, much to the delight of financial analysts everywhere 🧐.

Job Openings Take a Nosedive—But Not into Oblivion

Right before the May FOMC meeting (which is basically the economic version of the Oscars, but with fewer wardrobes malfunctions), data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals job openings fell by a jaw-dropping 288,000 in March, landing at 7.192 million. Markets were expecting a slightly less catastrophic 7.490 million, but apparently the job market prefers to keep everyone on their toes. February also got a revision—downward, obviously. Because apparently we didn’t need that extra optimism 🥲.

The job openings rate dropped to 4.3% from February’s 4.5%. Meanwhile, the quits level (basically, the “I’m outta here” index) rose to 3.332 million. That’s a lot of dramatic resignation emails. The quits rate tiptoed up to 2.1%. Economists treat that figure like a weather vane for worker confidence—so apparently, even when things look bleak, we still think we can do better somewhere else.

Kathy Jones of Charles Schwab, whose job is to make us all feel slightly better about being confused, pointed out: “The ratio of job openings to unemployed folks slid to 1.0, matching the sad record set four years ago.” Insert dramatic sigh.

Labor Market Is Cooling—Ice Age or Just a Cold Snap?

Layoffs in March dipped to 1.558 million, down from the revised 1.780 million in February. (So, at least you don’t have to dodge pink slips at the office quite as much.) The threat level, aka job loss incidence, shrank from 1.1% to 1.0%. Basically, companies seem to be clutching their employees like soggy lifeboats, not chucking them overboard—yet.

With the job market less frosty than a discount freezer, Jerome Powell (Fed Chairman, not a Marvel villain, though with those powers—who can say?) might have to consider a rate cut if things get even chillier. Oh, and in other news: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent popped by a press briefing to say they’re chatting with partners about using tariff revenue to bankroll the ITA. Yes, the government may soon be funding more things by taxing random objects. Please clap.

“There is a good chance we will see this in the upcoming tax bill,” he declared, probably while imagining all the shiny new tariffs.

Among the changes floating around: potentially axing taxes on tips, Social Security income, and overtime pay and—wait for it—bringing back tax deductions for interest on American-made car loans. All allegedly to be funded by tariffs, which Bessent says will provide a “stable” revenue stream. Fingers crossed. Or not.

Fed Rate Cut Speculation: Now at a Fever Pitch!

The deadly duo of wobbly labor stats and listless consumer confidence has markets positively frothing about a Jerome Powell rate cut. No change expected in May (holding at a cliffhanger-worthy 91% probability), but the odds of a late-2025 cut just shot up to 89%, according to Polymarket. Hold onto your wallets.

Joel Griffith from the Heritage Foundation mused, “Slower or even negative growth and higher prices could lead to a shift in Fed policy.” So…yes, maybe, possibly, unless we all take up knitting instead.

Meanwhile, Ted, a financial analyst with the kind of strategy you only hear after midnight, expects “rate cuts and quantitative easing by Q4,” predicting an economic environment only a crypto trader could love. He name-checked Donald Trump’s crypto enthusiasm and Paul Atkins’ SEC appointment as catnip for crypto investors. Strategic flex, Ted.

Ted also hinted that upcoming approvals of crypto-based ETFs like XRP, plus a tidal wave of institutional money, may combine with global regulatory clarity (will it ever?) to turbocharge digital assets. Especially if, you know, rate cuts magically make everyone richer 😏.

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2025-04-29 21:03