Michael Saylor’s S&P 500 Gambit: Will Bitcoin Behave or Throw a Tantrum?

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If one fancies a bit of financial theatre, Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR)—which, for reasons best left unprobed, trades under the moniker “Strategy”—appears poised to waltz into the S&P 500, provided Bitcoin doesn’t get dramatic and swoon more than 10% before the curtain falls on Q2. According to Jeff Walton (who declares himself an analyst, and who are we to crush his dreams?), the odds stand at a flabbergasting 91% in favour, at least until something inevitably goes sideways.

“I’d wager a robust 91% chance of MSTR making their entrance into the S&P 500 this quarter,” Walton announced in a video that, alas, stopped short of jazz hands. 🍸

All Eyes on Four Quarters (Financial, Not Football)

For Saylor’s grand scheme to work, it appears Bitcoin mustn’t tumble below a positively baroque sum: $95,240 before June 30. Should Bitcoin misbehave, Strategy—the proud owner of 592,345 Bitcoins, surely enough to impress even the most hard-bitten Victorian miser—simply won’t earn enough in Q2 to cover the previous three quarters, which, let’s be honest, were about as profitable as a palm tree in Piccadilly.

Now, the S&P 500 (for those not part of the cognoscenti) is the pantheon of the US’s 500 most extravagantly large, publicly traded companies. And inclusion isn’t just a handshake and a glass of Chablis; one must demonstrate positive earnings for four consecutive quarters—hide the receipts if you must, but losses simply won’t do.

Ever since January, Strategy’s accountants have had the pleasure of embracing ASU 2023-08, an accounting rule which ensures every twitch in Bitcoin’s price is reflected in net income. Yes, every quarter is now as suspenseful as Noël Coward’s most devilishly timed plot twist.

Our affable Mr. Walton calculated that with Bitcoin twirling at $106,044 at the time of his oration, the danger of a 10% plummet within the six remaining days of Q2 is, statistically, less likely than encountering someone at a Mayfair soirée who hasn’t heard of Bitcoin.

Since the days of yore (or, more specifically, September 17, 2014), Bitcoin’s six-day 10% plunges have occurred 343 times—though, to be fair, that leaves 3,585 periods where it refrained from doing so. Walton, ever the optimist, points out this means a 91% chance of tranquility and only 8.7% chance of Bitcoin panic. Stirring stuff!

Each day we limp toward the end of Q2, the probability of Bitcoin behaving improves. Five days to the finish: 92.4%. Four days: 93.4%. Three days: 94.5%. Two days: 95.8%. One solitary day: 97.6%. At this rate, Strategy’s accountants will soon be mixing martinis in anticipation. 🍸🍾

Yet, just to clear all the confetti from the stage, rising geopolitical “kerfuffles” between Iran and Israel sent Bitcoin below $100,000 on Sunday—its first flirtation with such depths since May. At curtain time, Bitcoin had rebounded to $106,200. Breathtaking, isn’t it? 🎭

If, by some miracle, all this arithmetic ends in prosperity, Strategy shall become only the second crypto extravaganza in the S&P 500 this year. Coinbase performed the first act, and executives across Crypto-Land toasted it as a watershed moment for legitimacy, presumably with something stronger than sparkling water.

The ever-ebullient Meryem Habibi of Bitpace told CryptoMoon, “It cements the legitimacy of an entire asset class.” One wonders what still has to be cemented for the others.

Lest we forget, back in December 2024, Nasdaq announced that Strategy would join its rather exclusive Nasdaq-100 Index—the 100 largest stocks by capitalization, where the only thing bigger than the numbers is the egos.

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2025-06-25 09:44