Noem on the Chopping Block: Markets Mock a Cabinet Shakeup

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Markets for political fortunes flicker like a gaslight in a provincial townhouse, and yet they dare to glow red with meaning. In the middle of this flicker sits Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, a figure whom the trading clerks now proclaim the odds-on favorite to be the first Trump cabinet member parted from the council of power-a brisk, almost theatrical exit that seems driven by a chorus of outcry over her defense of the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renée Good in Minnesota.

Noem has become the clear favorite on Polymarket and Kalshi to be the first Trump cabinet member to leave.

  • Her odds jumped from 12% in late January to roughly 40-43% amid fallout over her defense of the fatal Alex Pretti shooting.
  • Bipartisan backlash: Republicans including Sens. Thom Tillis and Lisa Murkowski broke ranks with Trump and called for Noem to step down.

    • On Polymarket and Kalshi-two online “prediction markets” where citizens fashion contracts tied to real-world outcomes-Noem has vaulted to the top of the ledger for the question, “Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?” After lingering at a mere 12% on Jan. 21, her implied odds have surged to 43% on Kalshi and 40% on Polymarket by Wednesday’s pale dawn.

    Prediction markets like Polymarket (crypto-based and settled on blockchains) and Kalshi (a federally regulated exchange overseen by the CFTC) permit traders to stake coins on events such as elections, court rulings, or cabinet upheavals. Prices prance along in real time, guided by the push and pull of buyers and sellers, effectively crowdsourcing a probability for how likely an ending might be.

    Noem’s ascent leaves Attorney General Pam Bondi-who has faced bipartisan gnashing over her handling of the Epstein files-and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who has reportedly been accused of taking staff to a strip club during an official work trip-far behind in the dust of the marquee.

    Yet Noem bears the fiercest scrutiny due to her early pronouncements about Pretti and Good. Noem, before any diligent examination, declared that both Pretti and Good were “attacking” U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) employees – tales with no solid evidence, and repeatedly challenged by bystander films and eyewitness accounts that look with a patient eye and shrug at the loud chorus.

    Why it matters

    While Democrats debate whether Noem’s departure would alter the course of immigration policy, Republicans-at least for the first time-have publicly unhitched themselves from the Trump wagon over her leadership.

    Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who voted to confirm Noem, declares with the confidence of a man who has misplaced his spectacles:

    “She should be out of a job.”

    Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who also voted to confirm Noem, adds with a measured sigh:

    “I would not support her again, and I think it probably is time for her to step down.”

    Some Democrats caution that Noem’s departure alone would not repair the deeper veils hanging over DHS. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who likewise voted for Noem, offers a practical note:

    “I don’t want a DHS Secretary Stephen Miller.”

    There exists yet another market with a 32% chance that Noem will be out by March 31 and a 24% chance she’ll be impeached by the end of 2026, as if probability itself were a theater managed by fate’s own desk clerk.

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    2026-01-28 19:14